Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by confoundedinterest17 This is the worst start to a fiscal year EVER: – Spending is up 10.9% – Receipts are down 2.2% – FYTD deficit up 39.4% at $711 billion They’re handing Trump a ticking time bomb! Speaking of Biden handing a ticking time bomb (according to Zero Hedge), after rising for 5 straight months, …
I can do this ALL DAY in CPG. The consumer is dead pic.twitter.com/5vRBTU6sKF — USA Divides by 32 (@sabregold19991) January 8, 2025 Consumer revolving credit in the US just fell off of a cliff. The last 6-month drop is even larger than the drop seen in 2008, 2nd largest behind 2020. What is happening here? …
Once again, the disconnect between what the stock market is hoping and what the consumer is telling us, is striking. Retail inventories are climbing month after month, and revisions are upward. The consumer is spending less and less and retail inventory levels are climbing… https://t.co/bBT0uZf6Ym — Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) December 27, 2024 That’s just …
This chart is eye-opening: The S&P 500 has seen modest growth in corporate earnings compared to its notable price appreciation since 2023, the year where, among other things, ChatGPT was released. pic.twitter.com/N03i8gn7Bs — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) December 23, 2024 BREAKING: The US consumer confidence index fell to 104.7 points in December, marking one of …
“Depending on the nature and the rate and how it’s structured, it could be pretty substantial,” Clark Packard, a research fellow at the Cato Institute’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, told FOX Business about the impact of tariffs on consumer prices. “He talked on the campaign trail about a 10% to 20% …
My take is that 30yr mortgage is in a pause before heading higher. — Alistair (@kiwiangloameric) December 21, 2024 BREAKING: 30 year average US mortgage rates are above 7% again, per Mortgage News Daily. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 21, 2024 $500 billion for 5 days? 🤨 https://t.co/RkcFxJ0OGq pic.twitter.com/NXfcFpSr3f — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 21, 2024 Extremely …
The global consumer is in secular decline (with an average 10:1 spending, saving, consuming capability over low-income nation consumers) …and the global low-income nation producers will have fewer and fewer customers of means to purchase their products. Few will acknowledge that a “free-market economy” amid depopulation of consumers is incompatible with a financial system that …
Was at the Apple Store yesterday to get some upgrades before the tariff war increases prices, this was literally the worst holiday sales the store has seen (per employee) Its so bad you can see the 0 demand for the Vision Pro, totally worth the 40X. 2 weeks before xmas lol pic.twitter.com/nhhdizGBQy — The Punisher …
This could explain a LOT about the November election. “The gap between economists’ measurements of economic well-being and what consumers actually said they were feeling puzzled many researchers.” Because the Fed and researchers measured the cost of living wrong. Still do. They lowered inflation in 1983 by changing the way they measured inflation. The red …
Highest ever! Renowned contrarians! (Not a precise timing indicator BUT almost always ends badly) Go figure….. US Consumer confidence about the 12m outlook for the US stock market pic.twitter.com/hGtFPqlOWG — Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon) December 3, 2024 Positioning on S&P 500 Is Very Extended pic.twitter.com/ZleRSyP4j3 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) December 3, 2024 Wall Street Short …
Musk & DOGE’s first target may be Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Looks like Tesla customers went to CFPB too many times. Without giving any valid reasons Musk wants CFPB removed. Delete CFPB. There are too many duplicative regulatory agencies. CFPB makes it easier for customers to resolve issues with banks, credit cards etc.. Marc Andreesen was hinting …
(Bloomberg) — The US Federal Trade Commission is looking into whether Uber Technologies Inc. violated consumer protection laws with its flagship subscription service. The FTC is investigating Uber over enrollment and cancellation aspects of the product, according to documents viewed by Bloomberg. The investigation was opened earlier this year. The Uber One subscription program gives …
Key Points: Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator plunges to -23.3, signaling deepening recession fears in late Q4 2024. Income expectations hit a new low since February 2024, falling 17.2 points to -3.5 due to rising unemployment. Private consumption risks intensify as it accounts for over half of Germany’s GDP, threatening economic growth. https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/german-consumer-confidence-tumbles-recession-fears-mount-eur-usd-dips-1479213
#DEC With its resources the US will be OK. But I doubt Europe will be able to dodge this bullet again. Full blown depression there by end February 2025. — Wizard of Windsor (@WizardofWindsor) November 20, 2024 Lumber prices are now 19.8% higher than they were one year ago The framing lumber composite price increased …
by confoundedinterest17 There is one way out of the inflation trap. And it’s drill, baby, drill! For the 53rd straight month, core consumer prices rose on a MoM basis in October with the YoY pace re-accelerating to +3.33%. The shelter index increased 4.9 percent over the last year, accounting for over 65 percent of the total 12-month increase …
The public’s savings are dwindling and borrowing is stockpiling a record amount of debt. At EWI, we view the markets — and economy — differently from the mainstream. Here’s a prime example from the just-published October Elliott Wave Theorist.
“US CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR BANKRUPTCIES SKYROCKET⚠️ There have been 81 large consumer discretionary firms that went bankrupt year-to-date. It has been driven by an average consumer pulling back on spending. The 2nd most hit sector was Industrials with 60 bankruptcies.” ⚠️US CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR BANKRUPTCIES SKYROCKET⚠️ There have been 81 large consumer discretionary firms that …
BREAKING: The number of people working MULTIPLE jobs in the US hit 8.66 million in September, a new record. This is ~300,000 above the peak seen before the pandemic and ~600,000 above the 2008 peak. Furthermore, the number of part-time jobs has jumped by ~3 million over the… pic.twitter.com/znOOEMR6Ln — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October …
View post on imgur.com https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence Consumers’ view on the economy tumbled in September, falling by the largest level in more than three years as fears grew about jobs and business conditions, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The board’s consumer confidence index slid to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August, the biggest one-month decline since August …
4/ The financial pressure on consumers is evident in the increasing number of defaults Consumer defaults is now climbing at the fastest pace since 2007 While still below 2007 peaks, if current trends persist, we could hit 2008 levels H1 2025 pic.twitter.com/K1j77j1n8L — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 24, 2024 ShopperTrak same-store retail traffic is a …
…In total, Goldman Sachs has lost a staggering $6 billion pre-tax since the beginning of 2020 “on a big chunk of its consumer-lending businesses, including its credit cards”, a sad confirmation of our 2018 warning. Several factors contribute to Goldman’s massive losses associated with Apple Card, including lax underwriting standards and the resulting charge-off rates that …
More good news: A nice bounce in consumer sentiment in September, according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. People are noticing lower prices and cooling inflation: 1-year Inflation expectations are down to the lowest since 2020. pic.twitter.com/u8KupQHMRu — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 13, 2024 1. Highest consumer sentiment since May 2. Lowest 1-yr …
Tweet: NEWS: Auto loan delinquencies keep climbing Subprime delinquencies (FICO: 580–669) jumped 26 basis points to 5.17% in Aug. Even prime loans (660–719) saw a slight uptick to 0.50% overdue. The reason? Consumers with auto loans originated in the past two years are falling further behind as elevated interest rates and vehicle prices squeeze household …
Citi: pic.twitter.com/qRIJKv8LZt — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) September 9, 2024 Goldman Sachs to post $400 million hit to third-quarter results as it unwinds consumer business Goldman Sachs will post a roughly $400 million pretax hit to third-quarter results as the bank continues to unwind its ill-fated consumer business. CEO David Solomon said Monday at a …
by Michael When U.S. consumers are doing well, the U.S. economy does well. But of course the opposite is also true. When U.S. consumers are not doing well, the U.S. economy really suffers. The government has been trying really hard to put a happy face on things, but the truth is that the standard of …
(Bloomberg) — Record-breaking stock selloffs in two of China’s biggest consumer companies erased more than $16 billion from the fortunes of the nation’s richest people, underscoring deepening investor concern over the health of Asia’s biggest economy. China’s wealthiest person, Nongfu Spring Co. founder Zhong Shanshan, lost some $3 billion as the beverage giant’s shares fell …
A chemical used in rocket fuel, fireworks, and airbags has been detected in various supermarket and fast food items, according to a recent study. But how worried should you be? Researchers with Consumer Reports tested 196 food samples and discovered that about 67% contained varying levels of the chemical perchlorate. The findings, published on August …
Consumer Credit Card Debt Continues to Grow Consumer credit card debt in the US continues its upward trajectory, reaching a staggering $1.07 trillion as of August 14, 2024. This marks another milestone in the ongoing trend of rising consumer debt, though there are signs that… pic.twitter.com/Il5SBi52Zl — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) August 27, 2024
Off to the races! The Consumer Finance subindex reflects the number of intakes related to consumer finance issues such as billing disputes, auto repossessions and payday loans, as a share of total intakes across all areas of law. pic.twitter.com/CwtdHZLp8f — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 26, 2024 Electricity prices are up 📈 46% since January 2021. …
