Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Total disconnect with what’s going on a consumer level. Restaurants did terrible in the summer. I expect many closings next year. Those that were making money will survive and those that aren’t will close. — PANDITO (@pandittto88) September 16, 2025 U.S. Margin Debt jumps to $1.02 Trillion, a new all-time high 🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/3wtNr5tXRT — Barchart …
Compare to August. On the Monday after the jobs report, stocks gapped down and the VIX exploded. Monday open was the low of the week. Today, the market gapped down amid relative complacency. This morning BTFD bounce could be the high of the week. pic.twitter.com/PnHNYjtIWw — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) January 13, 2025 This incipient bear market …
DUDE We are super close to implosion. Two rosy "strong/resilient" months then complete free fall IMO. Same playbook every cycle. They declare recession is averted then MORE complacency occurs before the rug is pulled out beneath themThose $GME swaps👀💥https://t.co/mq52SLvnLB pic.twitter.com/W6Xo0tDEIE — 🏴☠️Fidel Cashflow🏴☠️🇺🇸 (@fullfieldflicks) December 19, 2024 YOU. CANNOT. MAKE. THIS UP. Yesterday was October …
Ladies and gentlemen we just inverted. God bless and Godspeed. pic.twitter.com/4MTRL2L0qB — The Great Martis (@great_martis) November 22, 2024 #recession … #GFC2 US edition https://t.co/mtfXMFo474 pic.twitter.com/kQjZrEqWB5 — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) November 22, 2024 Oh my … pic.twitter.com/qMXSXk9fak — The Great Martis (@great_martis) November 22, 2024 Eyes on the US2yr pic.twitter.com/Wd0vn11GnU — The Great Martis (@great_martis) …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Confidence / complacency doesn’t map the real world, in which liquidity dries up and markets go bidless. When Alan Greenspan issued his mea culpa in late 2013 about missing the subprime mortgage implosion and the resulting Global Financial Meltdown (Why I Didn’t See the Crisis Coming Foreign Affairs), he started by …
Chart: JP Morgan — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 28, 2024 For those that do not yet fully appreciate this concept, it's a simple business strategy. Market makers are not in the market to lose money. They have to hedge their delta exposure, so when they sell a put contract, they sell the underlying to …
The current state of the market reveals concerning trends, as the Dow struggles to maintain upward momentum, with each rally attempt met by afternoon declines. This pattern, coupled with the VIX’s significantly lower level compared to previous market peaks, suggests a market environment characterized by extreme complacency. Such conditions, reminiscent of periods preceding market crashes, …
We've never seen this before. A buffoonish level of complacency in a global RISK OFF event. pic.twitter.com/GgJPZWs1fP — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 19, 2023 There is a high probability that Powell will finish off China this week. And then U.S. gamblers will wish they had a map with more than one country on it. pic.twitter.com/90cy9Cz38j — …
History shows that investors should be wary when the fear of stocks reaches a low. Yes, complacency can persist for a while, yet there are other times when market turns arrive quickly, indeed, very quickly. Here’s an example.