Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Total US Debt just crossed $33 TRILLION China and Japan are dumping US treasuries at a record pace This won’t end well A thread 🧵 pic.twitter.com/CpJWfb2574 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 24, 2023 16/ Interestingly, this rise in insurance purchases coincides with an unprecedented selloff in US Treasury bonds US Treasury yields have also broken …
https://t.co/XBw4c92N4m — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 23, 2023 If that’s true, there is no recovery from this. It’s a matter of time. Might be a long time or a short time, but it’s all coming down. Contagion $100B+ in defaults in China's property bond sector could ripple through the world economy. It might impact …
"Impervious" Nasdaq Risks Big Downside If Mideast Conflict Spirals https://t.co/pZGX7DJyvn — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 19, 2023 Hedge Funds have increased their short stock exposure to the highest level of the year pic.twitter.com/IXb4OHLPA5 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 23, 2023
Good Morning Everyone! China dumps U.S. stocks and bonds! The most in FOUR years. Over $21.2B SOLD in August Mostly treasuries and bonds, but wait… China also UNLOADS a record $5.1B in U.S stocks Their U.S treasury holdings now the lowest since 2009😲 pic.twitter.com/05Xy6NK8I8 — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) October 19, 2023 Lowest holdings since …
by DesmondMilesDant Caption: High-quality debt created by data provider BondCliQ. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl… Caption: This H-portfolio contains 30 bonds covering major sectors such as tech, utilities, energy and financials, and includes bonds sold by Deere Capital Corp., Lowe’s Cos Inc., AMZN etc. This is the largest, most liquid, market in the world. It is heading …
Fun fact: bank credit is now contracting! Since dollar standard (‘71), that’s only happened once before: 2008. Losses in T bonds will far worse than mortgage losses. Stocks are on the verge of a massive collapse. Fractional banking does’t work in reverse. Few. pic.twitter.com/0fzX16lYGn — Porter Stansberry (@porterstansb) October 15, 2023 Banks losses on held …
Hedge Funds continue adding to their short U.S. Treasuries futures position which has now reached the largest short position in history pic.twitter.com/5VtUeUb7JQ — Barchart (@Barchart) October 11, 2023 I believe Bank of America is insolvent with a 6% Fed funds rate, leverage explodes. If your core capital is impaired, any losses on tertiary assets (credit …
by DesmondMilesDant Asset managers are holding more stocks than they have in more than ten years. (Previously) : Asset managers got hammered this year when bond yields went a lot higer than exp in a short amount of time. A 100bps+ jump vs 200+bps in 1987. We are currently witnessing the greatest Treasury bear market …
This is a new very bad development as until recently Evergrande was facing “just” a restructuring. Liquidation = death. Panic then possible as many others potentially in line for the same fate. Decision date is Monday 30 October, in 20 days. via YAHOO: (Bloomberg) — A group of offshore creditors of China Evergrande Group said …
Bonds have never seen so much blood in the past 236 years. pic.twitter.com/xvoI3g1Lxp — Wealthion (@wealthion) October 9, 2023 The Bank of America has $110 billion in paper losses on debt securities. $110 billion. Everything is fine. — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) October 9, 2023 Banks were exposed to an estimated $558.4 billion of unrealized …
I guess many had started buying in bonds with this in mind. But the impending recession just kept getting postponed…would have definitely hurted those fresh positions… — J (@Being__J) October 6, 2023
The public focuses on the stock market but this bond market is much more important to the economy. There are major consequences for all the banks who hold Treasury Bonds. The level of unrealized losses has probably gone through the roof and possibly hundreds of banks are technically insolvent if they had to mark their …
by flying_cofin Listen up regards, here is some quick 101 for you who don’t have slightest clue what’s driving the markets and why we are seeing all this news suddenly on Bonds and Yields: Fed led by Papa pow printed a lot of money during Covid.. like a fuck ton of money and used it …
The Bear Market never ended. The end of this bear market rally is rapidly approaching……. https://t.co/kf0JCvL7XA — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 5, 2023 G, we already there… Long-duration US TSY bonds have now lost more in % terms than stocks did during the GFC in 2008-2009 The drawdown in Vanguard Ext Duration Treasury ETF …
by j_stars Catch-up for junk bonds underway. Silver, gold will run as the bond market fire increases. Paper is burning. Both stocks and bonds.
Incredibly, ultra long-duration Treasury bonds have now lost more in % terms than stocks did during Great Financial Crisis. The drawdown in extended duration Treasury ETF (🔻58.3%) now exceeds PEAK-TO-TROUGH losses in S&P 500 during stock market crash of 2007 – 2009 (🔻56.0%) pic.twitter.com/nlXZH5xOUY — Jack Farley (@JackFarley96) October 2, 2023 Ok, think of it …
Everyone’s waiting to discover the level at which yields spur financial instability. From @kitjuckes this morning: “For now, the FX market is a bystander, watching Treasuries and waiting for them to break something.” — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 3, 2023 via Bloomberg: The slide in Treasuries has been excessive given recent economic data and Federal …
This chart shows the Ten Year Yield where 40 = 4.0%. Currently at 4.65%. View post on imgur.com Bloomberg today: "Rates aren't rising because of inflation, they're rising because of the bond market" Looks like they finally woke up to the truth 👇 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) September 28, 2023 Rates aren't rising because of inflation… …
Telegraphing a big move down in junk bonds (high yield) coming up. If there is a market panic, there may be a temporary spike in Treasuries. Junk bonds don’t do well during market panics. The S&P is heading below 3,000 Must…hold…this…line. pic.twitter.com/90lvi0FwFE — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) September 27, 2023 Complacency remains the order of the day. …
Since the creation of the Fed in 1913, US federal debt has on average doubled every 8-9 years. By 2036 US debt could be approximately 100T. If we make it that far lol. How do we get out of this financial mess? Neither party in DC seems able or willing to actually cut… pic.twitter.com/3evQTQdijo — …
Sounds right until it isn't! Problem is that the faster bonds sell off the greater collateral hit and impairment to Global #liquidity https://t.co/6GW0EYopoj — CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes (@crossbordercap) September 26, 2023 #recession … #StockMarket Bubble edition#Leverage 📉 #MarginCall 📈 https://t.co/nig1oqQvQ8 pic.twitter.com/FmkeTm30lS — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) September 26, 2023 #recession … Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition$DXY …
TLT is cracking lows not seen since 2011. BREAKING: Bond tracking ETF, $TLT, falls below $90 for the first time since April 2011. The 10-year note yield is now trading above 4.50% for the first time since 2007. The 2-year note yield is now up a massive 500 basis points since September 2021. Treasury yields …
Real yields on 10-year Treasuries closed yesterday at the highest since 2009. pic.twitter.com/Ujfb0Lco7l — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 15, 2023 Nominal yields keep going higher and this affects corporate bonds $LQD, therefore cost of refinancing is increasing. We can expect this chop into the market to keep going while investors move from growth to value …
Full 20 min interview : (26) Bill Gross on Bond Yields, Regional Banks, Opportunities – YouTube h/t DesmondMilesDant
by Chris Black Japanese investors have already begun adjusting investment portfolios away from U.S. bonds in light of rising FX hedging costs (https://archive.is/BGtTQ) and in anticipation of higher JGB yields (https://archive.is/8MWKR). Official sector data (https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html) show a notable decline in Japanese holdings of Treasuries, a slight decline in Agency MBS, and a modest increase in …
by RedditIsOwendByTheWS The government now lives from month to month. soon it will be from week to week. Then from day to day. and finally from hour to hour. Source : Traders Brace for $102 Billion Wave of Treasury Bond Sales – Bloomberg
Otavio (Tavi) Costa: “Corporate bonds now yield only 0.12% above the Fed Funds rate. The lowest level since 2007, preceding the Global Financial Crisis. Every time credit spreads were at historically suppressed levels, a hard-landing scenario followed. Perhaps this time is indeed different, but I would rather base my perspective on numerous indicators pointing towards …
China’s Murky Debt Corner Faces Funding Squeeze (Bloomberg) — The $9 trillion of Chinese local government bonds that helped drag the rest of the world out of the 2008 financial crisis are a growing risk this time around. The bonds funded an economic boom in China more than a decade ago, as local authorities borrowed …
Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops $667 Billion from Peak to $8.3 Trillion, Below Aug 2021, as QT Continues and Bank Panic Support Unwinds.The Fed has now shed 20.5% of Treasury securities it had bought during pandemic QEhttps://t.co/mPCK2pkADD pic.twitter.com/zN0GQQuqAF — Wolf Richter (@wolfofwolfst) July 7, 2023 h/t Simian_Stacker
