Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Overnight, Bitcoins got spanked. In the lower pane we see that Bitcoin became overbought at +20% above the 50 dma. Each time that has happened, it pulled back below the 50 dma, on average -10%. Which implies a -30% decline at minimum. pic.twitter.com/xNRCilkele — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 11, 2023
In an unprecedented turn of events, the real estate market is witnessing a significant shift as new home prices are poised to dip below existing home prices for the first time since 2005. This reversal in the traditional pricing dynamic suggests a notable change in the housing landscape. The median price for new homes has …
Mortgage rates are now officially TRIPLE where they were just 2 years ago. However, the median sales price of a home continues to rise. Affordability is so bad that not even investors can afford to buy. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 17, 2023 US …
This is proof that she will say anything for a buck. h/t j_stars
Prior to 2020, just ~4% of all outstanding mortgages had an interest rate below 3%. Now, a massive ~23% of all outstanding mortgages have an interest rate below 3%. The share of borrowers that have an interest rate of 4% to 5% fell from 40% to 20%. Meanwhile, just 9% of all… pic.twitter.com/820WdhZgDu — The …
Job creation in the United States slowed more than expected in August, according to ADP, a sign that the surprisingly resilient U.S. economy might be starting to ease under pressure from higher interest rates. The firm reported Wednesday that private employers added 177,000 jobs in August, well below the revised total of 371,000 jobs added …
via Mike Shedlock: A friend of mine in the shipping business has comments on a trucking article he sent. Let’s tune in. Truck image courtesy of Produce News Truck Rates Abysmal, But Some lanes Active Produce News reports Truck Rates Abysmal, But Some lanes Active Two transportation brokers report that truck rates are extremely low without …
Meanwhile, PPI for construction materials is up 11% YoY over the last three years, potentially putting more pressure on homebuyers as the demand for new homes continues to increase. https://t.co/rfFs5LNsry — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) August 23, 2023 Mortgage rates reached +14.75% in 1979. And then this happened 👀 pic.twitter.com/0ykTQHvNrE — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August …
This week, mortgage rates in the US hit their highest since 2001. We are well above the 2008 highs and rising. After the Fed minutes were released today, rate expectations increased. Bumpy road for homebuyers. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 16, 2023 Mortgage rates …
WE CLOSED BELOW THE 50 DAY MOVING 🐒!!!! pic.twitter.com/rHsBEIHHd8 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 15, 2023 Dramatic rallies on the way down always arrive when people least expect them. VIX options expiration tomorrow. Direction can change quickly. https://t.co/g8Pkm8onIu pic.twitter.com/NeIg3PDN3H — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 15, 2023 10Y3M spread -124bps, -118bps at high today pic.twitter.com/bFg3mNdEgI — …
Interesting that the ‘usual’ boomer toys (convertibles and coupes) are holding up the best. Only in America would people sign up for one or multiple >$1,000 a month car payments. Car market is large risk that not many talk about. — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 13, 2023
Note: This is an average, and only takes into consideration New cars (not used). — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) August 10, 2023
Energy stocks are only 5% away from recent highs. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe oil won't follow the same path. That alone would imply a 48% return from its current levels. As a crucial contributor to inflation, rising energy costs could have a… pic.twitter.com/fBZ60dhWlO — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 11, …
https://extapps2.oge.gov/201/Presiden.nsf/PAS+Index/C22B882BBDC40AC78525864F008106AB/$FILE/Yellen,%20Janet%20L.%20AMENDEDfinal%20278.pdf h/t cosguy224
The Fed has been clear that 2% is their inflation target. Now, we have inflation rising again and hovering near the 3% mark. Will the Fed raise their inflation target or will they finally get it under control? Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 10, …
DISCRIMINATION: A Citizen Journalist has revealed Best Buy is partnering with McKinsey & Company on a Management Training Program. The program is not open to white applicants. “Candidates must meet the [racial] requirements below” Any comment @BestBuy? pic.twitter.com/lxfivezCa6 — O’Keefe Media Group (@OKeefeMedia) August 8, 2023 The civil rights violation lawsuit should pay damned good …
Apple has lost its title as the world’s only company with a market valuation of $3 trillion, after the company warned it was headed for a fourth straight quarter of declining sales. Shares of Apple closed down 4.8 percent at $181.99, wiping more than $140 billion off the company’s market capitalization, in the stock’s biggest …
https://t.co/fZhvHiuQ6S — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 4, 2023 Number Of Americans Able To Afford $400 Surprise Bill Slides In Era Of 'Bidenomics' https://t.co/3dV6xksB5F — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 4, 2023 #Fed QT accelerates. Fed balance sheet shrank $91bn in July, -$759bn from peak, biggest drop ever to $8.2tn, lowest level since July 2021. Fed has …
BY DAVID HAGGITH The stock market is still purging some of its recent insanity this morning, but the real action has been in bonds. Fitch may have gotten everyone’s attention with its downgrade of US credit, but it has already turned into mainstream articles now pointing out what the financial media had been silent on. …
via justthenews: The Great Lakes states, let alone the nation, don’t have the infrastructure necessary for the transition to electric vehicles, a car search and research company reported. BMW Group, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes-Benz Group and Stellantis NV announced Wednesday they’re collaborating to install 30,000 high-powered charge points in urban and highway …
or worse, you could be this guy. hard to believe people pay him to invest their money. https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584656-apple-dead-money-for-3-more-years h/t Goldenbird666
by uslvdslv Key Takeaways: 1) Seven of the last eight recessions have started within the +/-1 Sigma birthing zone, which we just entered on July 20th, 2023. The only recession that started outside of this zone did so less than 3 months above this zone. 2) The projected start date of the next recession is …
Philly Fed manufacturing index below -25 has a 100% hit rate in leading to recessions since the 1970s We’ve already hit levels as deep as -31.3 this cycle pic.twitter.com/b0oZkiqicM — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 BREAKING: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes in below expectations Expected = -10.1 Actual = -13.5 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) …
Las Vegas Sets Record for Most Consecutive Days Below 100 Degrees “Las Vegas has officially broken a weather record, and it’s a good one, for a change.” https://www.casino.org/news/las-vegas-sets-record-for-most-consecutive-days-below-100-degrees/ I was watching Sin City Outdoors when I hear about the record breaking lows. I live in Oregon and I live without air conditioning. It’s 108 degrees …
“The last three recessions occurred when this proxy measure was at or near its lowest levels. The current reading is at or below any spread since at least 1998. Couple poor profit potential with fleeing deposits, and the banks’ ability or profit motivation to lend is minimal.” The last three recessions occurred when this proxy …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-incredible-chart-shows-the-close-relationship-between-the-s-p-500-and-fed-liquidity-166542a7 Earnings, schmearnings. Is what really matters just liquidity? This incredible chart, from Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok, shows the close relationship between S&P 500 SPX, -0.37% performance and net Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) since the pandemic began. Here, Fed QE is defined as the Fed’s total assets minus the balance of the …