Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Forget the Headlines The 3 Month Treasury Just Told You the Truth. The 3 month Treasury is basically the market’s closest read on the Fed. It sits right on top of the policy rate, so when it starts drifting meaningfully below that range, it’s the market’s way of saying, “We’re already looking past today’s rate …
Yes, it’s the US Economy breaking. Inflation, job losses, slow wage growth, no rate cuts, people can’t afford anything, mortgage rates too high, home prices too high… Bloody — WickedSmaht (@theeblazenasty) November 20, 2025 As we explain below, this entire market crash is a product of sentiment. Investors are afraid to be the "last one …
The ripple effect: U.S. grocers and convenience store operators say their sales fell immediately after the federal government halted SNAP food assistance benefits on Nov. 1. (AP Video: Jessie Wardarski/Nick Ingram) The federal government shutdown has created delays in some states when it comes to the program that helps millions of families heat and cool …
Europe needs to stop punishing entrepreneurship. Reducing taxes and cutting regulations are the bare minimum. They should also reward tech investments with attractive tax breaks. This doesn't even need to be a Peninsula-wide initiative either. Pick a few cities and make Special… — George (@BehizyTweets) October 3, 2025 Europe is falling behind year by year …
The United States is falling behind in manufacturing. We have less than a third as many manufacturing robots per 10,000 factory workers than South Korea. byu/MajesticBread9147 inEconomyCharts My chart is per 10,000 manufacturing workers so it isn’t just a chart of the largest manufacturing industries h/t MajesticBread9147
BREAKING: Tether just minted $2 billion out of thin air. Wondering why Bitcoin has been rising? It’s not organic demand, it’s Tether printing and funneling cash into BTC to prop it up, hiding behind the stock market rally as cover for mass manipulation. It’s a giant game of musical chairs. You don’t want to be …
The skies over Northern Europe feel unsettled, and the silence from defense ministries sounds more like fear than control. On September 22, Copenhagen’s Kastrup airport shut down completely after large drones circled the runways, grounding flights and diverting planes into smaller airfields across Denmark and southern Sweden. Almost at the same hour, soldiers in Oslo …
It’s not a huge conspiracy. If there was anyone I would believe about the camera, she’s the one. She states that she’s seen the footage and there is no blood at all behind him or on the back of him. h/t BananaFighter
The chart below shows that labor’s share and capacity utilization often move in opposite directions because higher utilization today tends to amplify capital’s pricing power rather than labor’s bargaining leverage. In the late 1990s, utilization pushed above 83% while labor’s share drifted down, as globalization and lean supply chains let businesses capture demand without raising …
The economy is showing signs of a hidden avalanche. Companies with thin margins and heavy debt will crumble faster than the public expects, and defaults will ripple through suppliers, banks, and landlords. FORTY percent decline in year-over-year HVAC sales in Q3. That is FOUR – ZERO percent. The reckoning is here. Catastrophic for over-levered, poorly …
via notayesmanseconomics This week has opened with some sobering news for La Belle France as late on Friday we were told this. Fitch Ratings – Frankfurt am Main – 12 Sep 2025: FitchRatings has downgraded France’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘A+’ from ‘AA-‘. The Outlook is Stable. This is hardly a surprise …
They say the economy’s fine. That’s the first lie. You walk through any town that used to have factories, used to have warehouses, used to have jobs, and you don’t see recovery. You see silence. Long-term unemployment just hit a post-pandemic high. That means people aren’t just out of work. They’ve been out for half …
Context at 11:22 “I started noticing something wasn’t right with home appraisals,” says Mitch Vexler, a whistleblower and property appraisal expert. He tells Daniela Cambone: “They were inflating property values to raise taxes, and that was fueling trillions of dollars in school bond debt that I think will skyrocket.” Regarding the magnitude of the problem, …
Indonesia’s deadly protests, sparked by economic frustration and anger over elite privileges, show no sign of abating. Demonstrators demand lower taxes and stronger support for the poor, pressuring President Prabowo Subianto to shift course. Read more: https://t.co/H9funI0dLI pic.twitter.com/Ac9pmZWPVB — Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) September 2, 2025 The situation in Jakarta is not yet as serious as …
The media just got caught pushing a shocking fake story about Trump—exposed as nothing more than a coordinated hoax.
Credit card delinquencies highest in 14 years, unpaid balances 90+ days, consumer spending under threat. Once the plastic is maxed, how do people buy anything? There's about to be a MASSIVE explosion, of all these people's student loan debt, credit card debt, and new BNPL debt hitting at once. I'm positioned pretty well in collections …
Why are basic items now treated like contraband at Walmart? This is why your local Walmart locked up the batteries, Matt👇💯 https://t.co/3CAMdgoCsP — Liberacrat™️ (@ViralVideos) August 30, 2025
Global trade is changing fast, and our power is slipping away. If we keep pushing too hard, we may wake up to a world that no longer listens to us. Trump should take credit here too https://t.co/fdVSAEvGXa — Paulo Macro (@PauloMacro) August 31, 2025 Yikes. The tariffs are forcing countries to make new partnerships. We’re …
https://imgur.com/KKKkpuV The warning came in the quietest way possible. Not through legislation, not through the courts, not in a press briefing where every word is scrutinized. It came in a single post, short, public, permanent, and viral. A sitting president chose a billionaire and his son as the subject of a criminal threat. He picked …
Volkswagen’s ID.3 is advertised with 168 horsepower, but you actually get 148 horsepower unless you pay extra. “The configurator lists the ID.3 Pure with 170kW (168bhp), but the fine print says it’s electronically limited to 148bhp unless you pay.” https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volkswagen/367566/forget-netflix-volkswagen-locks-horsepower-behind-paid-subscription The boost comes from software, not hardware. No range improvement, just more torque for rent. …
MSNBC drops a bombshell as New York AG Letitia James faces up to 30 years in prison, signaling the end of her political career.
I’ve got bad news. The AI cycle is over—for now. I’ve been an unapologetic AI maximalist since the first time I tricked GPT-4 into writing a working Python back-test for a volatility strategy back in early 2023. I’m still convinced it will take the wider economy years—maybe decades—to fully digest the productivity shock we’ve already …
The Senate committee passed the PELOSI Act 8 to 7. Just one Republican voted yes. The bill would ban lawmakers and spouses from owning stocks. The White House is pushing back hard because the bill now includes the president and vice president. “It raises Article II concerns about presidential powers,” says the Office of Legislative …
This is what slow-motion collapse looks like. M2 is ripping, debt is spiking, and faith in fiat is circling the drain. Banking Crisis: Lender of Last Resort 2023 was three times worse than the 2008 GFC. The next crisis will be biblical. 2026? pic.twitter.com/CLU2IcYIA5 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) July 26, 2025 M2 money supply …
Ghislaine Maxwell’s life behind bars has been laid bare by one of her former cellmates. Jessica Watkins – who was imprisoned for her part in the 2020 Capitol riots – said Maxwell, 63, has rebranded herself as a teacher to other inmates. The 42-year-old transgender Army veteran said Jeffrey Epstein’s former pal mostly keeps to …
Charge him for TREASON! — Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) July 14, 2025
Stephanie Guild, Robinhood CIO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss Guild’s outlook on equity markets, what to listen for in earnings season and much more.
Fed stress test hints at silent zero rate countdown…
Bob Elliott, CEO and CIO of Unlimited, warns of a looming “season of disappointment” as soaring markets like the S&P 500 at 6,100 mask a decelerating U.S. economy, with a $109.6B income drop, hiring freeze, and tariff-driven price risks threatening a potential crash.
European stocks beat US when forex counted. We are bombarded by "S&P at new highs". But it's MONEY ILLUSION. By staying in US stocks, you are getting relatively poorer. Yes, in $ terms, the S&P is up 5% YTD, but flat in foreign currencies. As a US investor, you'd be up 20% in European stocks. …