Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The market is shifting in a way unseen since 2008. Buffett is selling Citi shares, Elliott Management is exiting NVIDIA, Pershing Square is cutting back on Google, and Soros has walked away from Boeing. When top investors move together like this, it is a clear sign. The latest 13F filings reveal a synchronized shift from …
“Deutsche Bank’s forecast points to a sharp deterioration in S&P 500 earnings growth, with Q2 expected to turn negative and a deeper contraction anticipated later in 2025 if tariffs persist, marking a stark divergence from the more optimistic bottom-up consensus.” – @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/zRShvKWuSp — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) May 8, 2025 “.. We’re seeing pushback …
Leading indicators suggest inflation is set to rebound: The index of prices paid by New York manufacturers jumped to 51 points in April, the highest since August 2022. At the same time, the Philadelphia manufacturing prices paid index rose to 51 points, the highest since July 2022. All while the Dallas and Kansas manufacturing prices …
Should be an interesting opening in the morning. Futures deteriorating all night 💀 pic.twitter.com/lL2jkbz91G — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 6, 2025 $SPY This is going to be interesting, they're running it right up to the 200d likely ahead of Powell and that's exactly what happened in 2022 when prices hit the 200d and Powell did …
propaganda – noun – prŏp″ə-găn′də – the spreading of ideas, information, or rumor for the purpose of helping or injuring an institution, a cause, or a person STILL no explanations – no apologies – no comments Harris was never ahead, they knew it, and they did this 👇 https://t.co/5fGwMY5yan pic.twitter.com/MisYRFO4Aw — Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) May …
If we don't get a deal with China soon, we are heading for an apocalyptic market and economy it's as simple as that. The probability of a deal may be ~20% with say 10% upside to stocks = +2% probable gain. The probability of no deal is 80% with -50% downside to stocks = -40%… …
BTC/M2 is exhibiting a pattern similar to 2021, indicating the possibility of a rally through August, followed by a significant top. pic.twitter.com/t23WXeJmTv — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) May 2, 2025 S&P 500 may not have bottomed warns Goldman Sachs 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/O2ETYoGk5Z — Barchart (@Barchart) May 2, 2025
For at least 35 years, the monetary system has been telling us that the current era is coming to an end. That means a debt collapse, a currency collapse and a collapse of most bubble assets like stocks and property. THUS THE BIG SHORT! — Egon von Greyerz (@GoldSwitzerland) April 26, 2025 Quick reminder – …
SMALL BIZ LOVES THE PAIN—TRUMP TARIFFS GET A THUMBS-UP FROM MAIN STREET A flash poll of 50,000 small business owners shows they’re not flinching. Nearly 70% believe Trump’s tariffs will strengthen the U.S. economy, and 77% say business will grow in 2025—even as 29% admit costs are rising. ‘ That’s not fear—it’s fuel. Main Street …
Pope Francis lies in state in St. Peter’s Basilica ahead of his funeral on Saturday in St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican. The pontiff died of a stroke at age 88.
It's all about Japan now. pic.twitter.com/k6qEvqWrY7 — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) April 17, 2025 Japan's Ministry of Finance admits they sold foreign bonds during the market turmoil last week https://t.co/oaPYAF8vEX — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) April 17, 2025 Japan's Bond Market is Flashing a Serious Warning Japan's government bond yields dropped sharply today, marking another critical signal that …
Retail dip buyers may vanish when reality finally lands. Given how overpriced the U.S. stock market is, and the severity of the coming recession and earnings decline, it still has a long way to fall. In fact, despite the decline, given the negative impact of tariffs, the market is more overpriced now than it was …
BREAKING: US financial conditions are now their tightest since the 2020 pandemic, per ZeroHedge. Financial conditions are even tighter than during one of the most rapid Fed hike cycles of all time, in 2022. Conditions have tightened rapidly as stocks have pulled back, while… pic.twitter.com/d53KqrwU4D — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 14, 2025 Is this …
Retail investor activity is higher today than it was prior to the 27% ^IXIC drawdown in Feb (hard to believe) – this likely stays the case through another larger downside impulsive move We’ve never had so many households or individuals ‘all in’… speculative fever continues🤒🌴 — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) April 11, 2025 Very disturbing chart …
Are we on the verge of another epic stock market crash — or worse, a “lost decade” where equities go nowhere?Join us as we dive into the “Blood Indicator,” a historic signal that has often preceded major market downturns. In this discussion with Alan Hibbard and Mike Maloney, you’ll discover: Why excessive household investment in …
High interest rates have been battering consumers for years. And there’s been a lot of pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate, since that should result in lower consumer borrowing costs across the board. But in March, the Fed opted to keep its benchmark interest rate steady. The Fed hasn’t nudged …
It looks like a bull flag has formed in CDX HY spread. If that's the case, the real fun is about to start. pic.twitter.com/RuFD8oObMP — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) March 26, 2025 So far, the “buy the dip” behavior from retail is very similar to Q1 2022. The $SPX didn’t bottom until Q4 2022. $SPY …
As we discussed in this past weekend's #BullBearReport, the #market is likely at a near-term low given the deeper oversold conditions. https://t.co/4YMHjPb1Lw@thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/hoO5XBzZWm — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 24, 2025 Just a quick reminder not to get too #bearish on the #market until it #confirms that a #correction is more than just a correction. pic.twitter.com/TTApX8T8E5 …
by Michael Do you remember the days when the complete and utter dominance of the U.S. military could not be questioned? Sadly, those days are long gone. I have written extensively about how the Russian military has now surpassed us in a number of key areas, but it could be argued that the ascendancy of the Chinese military …
NOW – Trump says "interesting days ahead" with Iran, saying "something's going to happen very soon."pic.twitter.com/NP0XFx5GpA — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 7, 2025
🚨🇨🇳CHINA LEAPS AHEAD IN QUANTUM COMPUTING ARMS RACE China’s Zuchongzhi-3 just left classical computing in the dust, running tasks a quadrillion times faster than today’s top supercomputers. It crushes Google’s latest quantum benchmark by 6 orders of magnitude, according to… https://t.co/U4Q9cz8uzt pic.twitter.com/n89wNrTK9Z — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 4, 2025
More bad news for Canada. Looks like we’ll have even cheaper US lumber again! US President Donald Trump is ordering the Commerce Department to launch an investigation into the national security harm posed by lumber imports, laying the legal groundwork for new tariffs he’s pledged. Trump is simultaneously signing an executive order, titled “Freeing our …
Al Sharpton’s stunt at Costco is pathetic—this is what happens when corporations pander to DEI instead of focusing on real value for their customers. — ThePatrioticCreed (@PatrioticCreed) January 27, 2025
Mining stocks: 10+ years of bleeding out. "The longer the base, the higher in space." The breakout will be epic. pic.twitter.com/yIR1lMl3DJ — GoldSilver HQ (@GoldSilverHQ) January 4, 2025 Silver could make a quick run towards $38 by late February or early March then pullback and then start a long anticipated run towards all-time high… pic.twitter.com/KvvzwuIs8d …
What have we learned from the market this Fall? There are 2 paths forward for Real Estate and both are painful: 1. Higher rates, stagnant market, layoffs, prices grind flat or down 2. Lower rates that come when the economy collapses, not because the Fed waves a magic wand — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) December 20, …
The US Dollar is wiping out currencies worldwide. What a mess. Some type of dislocation is coming. Where and when? Who knows. https://t.co/okZ4Ritxou — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 19, 2024 BREAKING 🚨: Brazil Brazilian Real plunges to its weakest level against the U.S. Dollar in history pic.twitter.com/Pcfv1rpdef — Barchart (@Barchart) December 18, 2024 August 5th …
For a massive chain like Walmart to be closing stores right as we enter the busiest shopping season of the year, something really bad must be going on. A few weeks ago, the company’s CEO Doug McMillion shared a bleak outlook for holiday sales, and warned investors about a profit squeeze. But the fact that …
Menu PANIC IN LONDON: British Pubs Fear They’re Running Out of Guinness, Begin Rationing Pints By Mike LaChance Dec. 16, 2024 10:00 pm326 Comments TruthTweetShareGettrGab Pubs in the UK fear that they may be running out of Guinness and in some cases are even rationing pints of the famous black beer. If this keeps up, …
Insider selling is highly correlated w/ disappointing corp earnings over the following 12 months Makes sense: insiders understand their companies' future prospects better than anyone Insider selling is at an extreme high now, so…..? (h/t @jessefelder) pic.twitter.com/vD72DH7ffL — Adam Taggart (@adamtaggart) December 17, 2024 Guess who's next? Pay attention. pic.twitter.com/4EU5zf71AT — The Great Martis (@great_martis) …
