Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
RECORD 401(k) WITHDRAWALS SIGNAL FINANCIAL STRAIN A record share of Americans are tapping retirement savings as financial pressure rises. In 2025, 6% of workers with plans run by Vanguard Group made hardship withdrawals—up from 4.8% in 2024 and about 2% pre-pandemic. The main… — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 4, 2026 COLUMBUS, Wis., March 04, 2026 …
Millions of workers without access to a 401(k) or other workplace retirement plan could get a new way to invest — and an annual government match of up to $1,000 — under a proposal from President Donald Trump. “Half of all of working Americans still do not have access to a retirement plan with matching …
Macro vulnerability increasing ahead of automation wave. The consumer most exposed to AI displacement already has no financial runway. Before a single layoff announcement, 401k hardship withdrawals are 365% above baseline. Emergency savings at a 15-year low. Credit card delinquency in the 40-59 cohort at 12.7%. The shock absorber… — Craig Shapiro (@ces921) February 22, …
Alternative data shows US layoffs are surging: Job cuts tracked by MacroEdge jumped +70,609 MoM in October, to 154,559, the highest in at least 2 years. Monthly job cuts have now exceeded 100,000 for the 5th time this year. At the same time, layoff announcements compiled by Challenger Gray spiked +99,010, to 153,074, the highest …
$12 TRILLION CRISIS | Leveraged Loan Defaults EXPLODE 0:00 – Intro 01:19 – Sourced Data 1:50 – #1 Private Credit New Sub-Prime 3:06 – #2 Large Banks Exposed 5:30 – GFC Made Things Worse 9:30 – Bancorp Bad Debt 11:49 – #3 Private Credit Defaults Hidden 14:45 – Intentionally Unregulated 17:39 – #4 $12.4 Trillion …
Next year, 401(k) and 403(b) catch-up contributions for high earners must go into Roth accounts instead of traditional pretax accounts. Anyone with Social Security wages over $150,000 will be affected. For people in state pension systems, this likely applies to Medicare wages instead. If Medicare wages are just above $150,000, this rule creates an immediate …
Sherwin Williams cutting its 401(k) match is a pretty loud signal about where the cracks are showing in the economy. The company lives and dies by housing turnover and renovation cycles. Normally, people buying and selling homes drive paint demand, and DIY projects keep the volume steady. But with mortgage rates still locking people into …
The system is stacked against the average person, and nobody seems to care until it hits them in the wallet. Back in 2022, I predicted that the US would not only avoid a recession, but would experience an “immaculate” disinflation. Today, the insulation that once protected the labor market is gone. While a recession is …
Yields are more likely to crash in the coming months, not the opposite. pic.twitter.com/QNo5b0NzIb — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) April 25, 2025 Hardship 401k withdrawals running 15-20% above norms pic.twitter.com/C4VOxqXuNB — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) April 25, 2025 This is stunning: 44% of Americans now believe they will be WORSE OFF financially in …
Every year, the IRS adjusts retirement contribution limits to account for inflation and changes in the economic landscape. In 2025, workers saving for retirement will see increased contribution limits for 401(k)s, IRAs, and other tax-advantaged retirement accounts. Here are the numbers… By Peter Reagan Every year, the IRS adjusts retirement contribution limits to account for …
A Chinese startup rocked the U.S. tech sector with a cutting-edge AI (which they shouldn’t be able to build) at a much lower cost. Suddenly, the global dominance of the American tech sector can no longer be assumed. Today we ask, what does this tell us about the future? By Peter Reagan China has been …
via Mike Shedlock A Bloomberg op-ed proposes the government will kill the 401K, and also that it should. Your 401(k) Will Be Gone Within a Decade Please consider Your 401(k) Will Be Gone Within a Decade If you are among the 56% of US workers with a retirement plan, I have some bad news for you: …
by machyume Something brewing that most people don’t realize. Private equity is rising. See that picture above? Source: https://diversifiedtrust.com/blog/the-dominance-of-private-equity/ Exact numbers don’t matter, only where things are headed. Most of you are in the same miserable state that I am in, stuck flying coach. While we toil, gamble, and tuck our savings away into 401k and …
More Americans are tapping their 401(k) accounts because of financial distress, according to Bank of America data released Tuesday. The number of people who made a hardship withdrawal during the second quarter surged from the first three months of the year to 15,950, an increase of 36% from the second quarter of 2022, according to …