Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The odds of a US government shutdown on 14th Feb just dropped to 25%. Good for markets. pic.twitter.com/sLM0ferdLk — Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) February 13, 2026 The drop in shutdown odds to 25% on markets like Polymarket stems from the current funding lapse affecting only DHS, with minimal broader impact. Prediction criteria require a new OPM …
No way this is true. Tariff rate for a doll is 25%, so $800 tariff would be on a doll worth$3,200. — Jackie Staaf (@StaafJackie) December 22, 2025 pic.twitter.com/3QiXj2zlCu — Mahovolich (@mahovolich) December 21, 2025
by confoundedinterest17 According to Bill McBride at Calculated Risk, In October, sales in these markets were up 2.4% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 7.7% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales were up 2.9% YoY NSA, so this sample is close. Miami FL and central Florida lead the nation …
Palantir’s CEO Alex Karp just filed to sell more shares of $PLTR, for almost $100 million. Palantir is now down -25% since Michael Burry disclosed his short position. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance This is one company I want to see go bankrupt. h/t hotDamQc
Japan’s stock market fell -25% then rallied +67% all within a 10-month period. We are living in unprecedented times byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
Tricolor Auto Holdings just blew up, and the fallout is spreading fast. What was once a quiet giant in subprime car lending has collapsed into Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Cars are gone, loans are unpaid, and billions in debt are floating in the system with nowhere to land. But the real danger isn’t the bankruptcy itself, …
by Michael Do you feel knots in your stomach due to financial stress? If so, you certainly have lots of company. All of a sudden, everyone is talking about the cost of living and prices are rising by double-digit percentages all around us. There are so many people out there right now that feel like they are …
Something doesn’t ring true about the tariff ultimatum. Trump announced a 25 % tariff on India plus an added “penalty” for purchasing Russian energy and military goods starting August 1, framing it as both punitive and principled. He claimed India has “tariffs among the highest in the world” and uses “obnoxious non‑monetary trade barriers,” before declaring India …
Stellantis just confirmed what trade hawks have been waiting for. The company posted a €2.3 billion net loss for the first half of 2025. That’s $2.7 billion gone. The trigger wasn’t vague. It was tariffs. The United States Reciprocal Trade Act went live in April. It authorized 25% duties on imported vehicles not built inside …
The cracks are showing. DR Horton booked $1.02 billion in net income for Q3 2025, a sharp drop from $1.35 billion a year ago. Revenue slid 7% to $9.2 billion. Closings fell to 23,160. The backlog shrank 16%. Order value dropped 19%. Gross margin slipped to 22.7%. Incentives increased. Liquidity held steady at $5.5 billion. …
by confoundedinterest17 Housing and rental properties are simply unaffordable. Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency Rate on Multifamily (Apartment) loans soared to highest rate since 2000. Since it is as of January 31, 2025, you can’t blame this on Donald Trump (although I am sure they will try). Of course, home prices and rents soared under Biden. Home …
There’s been quite a buzz about potential delays in the 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Some sources have suggested that the tariffs, initially set to go into effect on February 1st, might be postponed until March 1st. However, there hasn’t been any official confirmation from the Trump administration. President Trump has reiterated …
25% of $TSLA earnings came from a $1.5b investment? What the heck happened w the rest of their business? — Kolby Smith (@Kolby_Smith) January 30, 2025 $TSLA 7% operating margins but it's not a car company OK MR MARKET LOL pic.twitter.com/GqkIcjyS36 — Q-Cap (@qcapital2020) January 29, 2025 $TSLA double miss on earnings. Could …
🚨🇺🇸TRUMP WINS $25 MILLION SETTLEMENT FROM META OVER ACCOUNT SUSPENSION Trump signed a settlement agreement requiring Meta to pay $25 million over his 2021 account suspension. $22 million will go toward Trump’s presidential library, with the rest covering legal fees and other… pic.twitter.com/H2eXvTfQUV — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) January 29, 2025 Hell yeah! So much winning …
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has executed a series of significant technology stock trades valued at over $30 million, according to recent congressional disclosure reports, while recovering from a hip injury sustained during an official trip to Luxembourg. What Happened: Pelosi’s latest trading activity includes substantial positions in major tech companies through options contracts. On …
https://twitter.com/AGAndrewBailey/status/1882901223067828722 https://twitter.com/AGAndrewBailey/status/1882493836481728696
The market value of all gold stocks and physical gold held in ETFs & close end funds combined is probably less than 1% of the S&P. pic.twitter.com/qE910ZpQVY — Tonyforever (@Tonyforever2003) January 5, 2025 #GOLD forms a rising wedge pattern on the yearly chart. The 1980 and 2011 candles show sharp shadows, while the 2024 candles …
BREAKING: #Bitcoin tumbles under 94K. pic.twitter.com/sn0IuI52Qv — Jacob King (@JacobKinge) December 27, 2024 They need liquidity 😈 — TrippyMike (@TrippyMike_TC) December 27, 2024 The market woke up and realized rates are high, liquidity is drying up and Powell is still serious about not cutting as much as what is desired. NASDAQ down over 2% S&P …