Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael Have the official employment numbers finally achieved peak fakeness? We just got another perfect example of why so many of us have completely lost faith in the fake figures that government bureaucrats have been feeding us. For months we were told that employment was booming, but now we are being told that just the opposite is …
by Michael Once dormant volcanoes have been erupting all over the globe, Mt. Rainier has been rattled by more than 1,000 earthquakes this month, one area of Japan has been getting hit by thousands of earthquakes, the largest supervolcano in Europe has been shaking like crazy, and a magnitude 8.8 earthquake just hammered the Kamchatka Peninsula …
The movie theater revival is not an accident. Domestic box office in 2025 has surged about 10% compared to the same period last year, reaching roughly $5,140,000,000 through July 30. Surprise winners like F1 and Superman are pulling audiences back. Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore didn’t overthink it: “Looking at 2025 in a vacuum, what a …
$NVO is still blaming their weakness on " knockoff GLP1s"😂 I like the company, but why isn't $LLY doing the same? Management has to take accountability at some point! pic.twitter.com/sLzJniQLyY — Patient Investor (@patientinvestor) July 29, 2025 The fall hit hard. Early in the morning Novo Nordisk shares dropped over 20% after slicing its full‑year …
Japan’s political landscape just shifted. On July 20, the ultranationalist Sanseito party jumped from one seat to 14 in the upper house of parliament. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost 13 seats and its majority. That’s the first time since 1955 the LDP has lost control of both chambers. The shift wasn’t subtle. It was …
Here is a quick chart I mustered up today… The ‘1929 trendline’ it’s a seldom and scary situation! pic.twitter.com/RKKuuDqKEn — Beachside Bagholder (@dax_mccaskill) July 18, 2025 2008 vs. 2025 Overlaying gold prices for the same period is even scarier. The ingredients are present now; all that's needed is a catalyst. https://t.co/8r1GIWZ7ys pic.twitter.com/a38GnrtieH — The Great …
The DOJ dropped its Pfizer bribery probe in China and Mexico soon after Pam Bondi, a former Pfizer legal consultant, became Attorney General in February 2025. The investigation’s closure, evident from Pfizer’s latest filings, has raised concerns about Bondi’s influence and DOJ impartiality. The DOJ dropped its Pfizer bribery investigation soon after Pam Bondi, a …
by confoundedinterest17 Finally, US government debt growth (YoY) was approximately equal to US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2025. Unfortunately, the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) is projected to add $3.9 trillion of debt. Unfortunately, there are insufficient spending cuts in the BBB. And the Senate just nixed kicking illegal imm*grants off of Federal healthcare programs. Unfortunately, GDP …
California’s housing market is slowing in 2025, with inventory skyrocketing and home values now dropping on a month-over-month basis.
Congress just published the 2025 schedule. Out of 365 calendar days, the chambers are set to meet on 133. That is roughly one out of every three days. The rest is labeled for travel, district visits, or recess. The Capitol floor will stay mostly quiet. July is limited to twelve working days. August is entirely …
UnitedHealth Group is having its worst year in over a decade. The stock is down 39% year to date. That’s not a dip. That’s a collapse for a company that used to be the ballast of the healthcare sector. The selloff started in April after the company slashed its 2025 earnings forecast. It hasn’t recovered. …
"The economic data change index is at its lowest level in more than two years, while the economic surprise index is at its lowest level of 2025."@LJKawa pic.twitter.com/MKELKxtPHl — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) June 19, 2025 CPI ex-shelter falls to 1.5% yet Fed and Wall Street still fear tariffs and wages, ignoring signs of real disinflation …
0:00 The Cost of Bills Index 2025 3:41 Affordable Living Options in the U.S. 6:09 Student Loan Crisis will impact the economy 8:39 Water View 9:51 From White Collar To Blue Collar 14:31 The Boat Life 17:51 McDonald’s New Business Plan Cost of living is top of mind for just about everybody these days considering …
Is it over? Small cap funds are set for their biggest outflow ever in 2025! pic.twitter.com/XvnJVPucxX — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 18, 2025 https://twitter.com/Aureliusltd28/status/1924111482608062617
The US government cannot afford a recession: In previous economic cycles, the US budget deficit widened by ~4% of GDP on average during recessions. This would imply a ~$1.3 trillion deterioration of US government finances if a recession hits in 2025. That said, if the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates will likely go …
📈 Diverging Trade Paths: U.S. Deficit Hits $1.4 Trillion as China’s Surplus Climbs to $1.1 Trillion (LTM Q1 2025) byu/EconomySoltani inInfographics In the twelve months ending March 2025, the U.S. trade deficit widened to $1.4 trillion, a 30.3% increase from the prior year. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus rose 30.9% to $1.08 trillion. Since the onset …
The trends in housing are not good in 2025. Rates are high, inventories are rising, and people are getting foreclosed on. California inventories are up 40%. pic.twitter.com/qxbnXntKDT — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 13, 2025 Great fucking news, US rents are falling pic.twitter.com/xPS5xZydcE — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 12, 2025 30-Year Treasury Yield jumps to 4.89%, …
by Michael What are the odds? When I heard that a study that was released in 2019 had analyzed the damage that would be done by a nuclear war between India and Pakistan in 2025, I knew that I had to investigate. It turns out that this study really does exist. According to the authors of …
Issuing debt that the Fed then buys with created out of thin air funny money is so Zimbabwe 2.0. The fed is already sitting on over $1.5 trillion in bonds. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAS10Y The train is out of control… The first 7 months of FY 2025 produced a deficit of $1.1 Trillion. That’s $196 Billion more than …
by Michael The president of the United States just threatened to end all trade with China if the Chinese do not stop buying oil from Iran. I realize that this sounds like something that Hollywood would dream up, but this isn’t a plot from an episode of your favorite television show. This is really happening. President …
On April 29, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.7%. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/VLdYkdKqYr — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 29, 2025 "S&P500 still has plenty of room to fall if a recession is inevitable," per Bloomberg — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 29, 2025 Dallas Fed logistics respondent: “Ocean container bookings have …
The IMF now estimates Argentina's economy will grow at 5.5% in 2025, the highest in all of the Americas except for oil-rich Guyana. Meanwhile U.S. growth got revised down to 1.8% Here’s what Argentina did: pic.twitter.com/UD8OOup4LN — John Stossel (@JohnStossel) April 24, 2025
Barack Obama: 75% of illegals deported received NO Due Process Bill Clinton: 90% of illegals deported received NO Due Process All the sudden Democrats in 2025 want 100% of illegals to receive Due Process BECAUSE NOW IT’S ABOUT VOTES Barack Obama “If you’re a criminal, you’ll be deported. If you plan to enter The US …
On April 24, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.5%. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/EHDZPwdxiP — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 24, 2025 Feels like 2008 all over again, according to this price analogy. pic.twitter.com/28V5dOW5hL — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) April 24, 2025 2/ US government bonds have broken below a 40-year uptrend …
Global trade outlook is deteriorating: The World Trade Organization expects world merchandise trade to fall -0.2% in 2025, down from +2.7% growth expected at the beginning of the year. This would follow the +2.9% growth recorded in 2024. North American trade is set to be hit… pic.twitter.com/c6h7dlUv4h — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 23, 2025 …
“If this was predicted 27 years ago then somebody knew something” Book accurately pictured the future to an absolute point. pic.twitter.com/4RAZr5DauA — Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) April 23, 2025 The book is called: 2025, Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology A free PDF copy can be found at the following link …
*IMF CUTS GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST TO 2.8% IN 2025, CITING CENTURY-HIGH U.S. TARIFFS — Investing.com (@Investingcom) April 22, 2025 US Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Apr: -42.7 (prev -32.5). 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/YwRqrzxYT4 — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 22, 2025 U.S. FACES “MANUFACTURED” RECESSION IN 2025, IIF WARNS The IIF expects a policy-driven downturn—not a shock like …
