Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Investors are cashing-in massive profits from the oil trade: The United States Oil ETF, $USO, has posted -$900 million in outflows so far in April, on track for its largest monthly withdrawal since the 2009 record of -$1.2 billion. Still, the ETF is up +2% month-to-date, after rising as much as +100% from January to …
This is what you should be looking at. pic.twitter.com/BPr4C3u7Fl — Travis Rothell (@TRothell62855) April 20, 2026 Nearly 40% of Americans said they have less than $500 in cash savings. pic.twitter.com/3ek6LlBGQ3 — DARWIN (@D4RW1NEXE) April 14, 2026 Nearly 40% of Americans have less than $500 in cash savings, survey shows Nearly 40% of Americans said that …
Median family income in the US increased from $10,000 in 1971 to $106,000 today, a 10x increase. However, the median cost of homes increased from $25,000 to $445,000, a 17x increase. And the median cost of cars increased from $3,600 to $50,000, a 14x increase. The median cost of college increased from $2,900 a year …
So we are in a position where : -COMEX going bust-AI bubble collapse after NVDA super earnings-BTC retests 4Q21 peak on ~69k$ and starts new wave down-Private Equity credit going bust-Housing market tanking-China entering next wave down after 2,5Ys of bear market rally to… pic.twitter.com/jl9ZJ8Dp9R — GregTheAnalyst (@Analyst_G) February 25, 2026 🚨 Google searches for …
Unsold completed homes for sale hit 2009 levels… pic.twitter.com/bhseVBGHRB — Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) February 17, 2026 At what % does it become a bubble? pic.twitter.com/2ERA6KJ53M — Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) February 17, 2026
by Michael Look out below, because the dam is beginning to break. Many of us were projecting that our economic problems would accelerate during the early portion of 2026, and that is precisely what has taken place. Employers are conducting brutal layoffs all over the nation, the number of job openings continues to decline, stores and restaurants …
UNDENIABLE PROOF that Donald Trump voluntarily assisted the 2009 investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, which led to his first arrest and conviction. the reason why Epstein was convicted was because of the evidence provided by Trump. this is called a RECEIPT. pic.twitter.com/BO3gs8mhr6 — The Rubber Duck ™ (@TheRubberDuck79) February 3, 2026 The claim that Trump's assistance …
What happened in 2009, I forget https://t.co/GM326AlrQS — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 8, 2026
The U.S. trade deficit retreated in October to its narrowest since June 2009 pic.twitter.com/fPWdEM8eGQ — Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) January 8, 2026 The recession is coming? Very well explained. This has been in the works since 2022. It's just continuing the business cycle which was short-circuited by COVID stimulus. The cycle is back on track. It's …
pic.twitter.com/NrbGmAwjqJ — Freedom Lover (@Truth10100) December 22, 2025
.@VP: "This economy was not harmed in 10 months. It took a deliberate 4-year administration that was making life harder for everyday Americans, that was importing foreign workers… over regulating, overtaxing… As much progress as we've made, it's going to take a little bit of… pic.twitter.com/ycgvkBPftW — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) November 20, 2025 And …
We’re about to enter the retail holiday season. Give it a few more weeks to see the real horror. Trucking freight volumes, a signal for the goods economy are a dumpster fire right now (-17% YoY) pic.twitter.com/4YPkLJtHdu — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 27, 2025 Hiring is at its lowest since 2009. But we’re still …
Lowest hiring since 2009.Payroll growth has slowed to <0.1% MoM.Openings down 25% YoY.Wage growth still sticky at 3.8%. It’s the worst mix possible — weak labor, stubborn inflation. — Shashank Sindhe (@shashank_sindhe) October 13, 2025 WTF! Hiring just hit the lowest level since 2009. Only 204,939 hires so far in 2025.That’s a 58% collapse YoY.Worse …
August hiring plans were the lowest since 2009. U.S. employers have announced 892,362 layoffs YTD, the most since 2020. Excluding COVID, this is the worst since the Great Financial Crisis. pic.twitter.com/6T7dxzZjvo — StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) October 4, 2025 It’s no wonder that the younger generations – Gen z and especially millennials are feeling much less confident …
https://twitter.com/rev_cap/status/1962197481111834696 Housing *does* need help, but totally agree if they cut FFR it’ll just make things worse Since cutting cycle of 100bps last sept, 30Y UP 100bps Eventually I also think they try another George W Bush type program (when the rate cuts don’t work)https://t.co/42buOXff4f — Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_) September 1, 2025 We’re now …
There’s nothing biased about labeling this the biggest bubble in US equity & housing history – it’s called the reality. Bubbles are rarely linear. — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 24, 2025 Housing market weakness triggers Lennar to offer biggest incentives since 2009#RESights #MacroEdge — MacroEdge RESights (@RESightsbyME) August 24, 2025 July 2025 saw the second …
by Michael If you want to get a really good indication of where the U.S. economy is heading, just look at what is happening in Las Vegas. During good times, hotel occupancy rates are very high and lots of money is thrown around in the casinos. But when times are getting tough, less people head …
by confoundedinterest17 It’s Gov’t Gone Wild! That includes The House, Senate, President and Federal Reserve. The purchasing power of the US Dollar was $1004.4 on 1915-03-01. By 2025-05-01, the purchasing power fell to $31.1, a loss of 97%. Public debt since the last year of GW Bush, Obama/Biden (with a brief hiatus with Trump) rose …
A new report from the Wall Street Journal shows that home sales in the U.S. just collapsed to the lowest level since 2009. This indicates reduced homebuyer demand and increased risk of a housing market correction. CNBC: April active home listings are up 31% YOY. 👀 31% of them had a price reduction. — QE …
U.S. Profit Outlook is now the most unfavorable since November 2007 🚨 Anything interesting happen in 2008? 🤔👀 pic.twitter.com/NadMu4F7ps — Barchart (@Barchart) April 16, 2025 Wow, that’s a worse print than during the 2001 and 2009 recessions. It’s getting really more and more difficult to imagine how we can avoid a recession right now. pic.twitter.com/ycRrqfEVge …
In Canada, bankruptcies, consumer proposals, and insolvencies are at a 5-year high. 📢 🇨🇦 Consumer Insolvencies Just Hit A 2009-Level Surge If this is a "strong" economy, what happens in a downturn? Why is this a massive warning sign for 🇨🇦 consumers & real estate. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/9T64MjMXLj — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) February 17, 2025 https://twitter.com/ShaziGoalie/status/1891536438933561782
The U.S. housing market is facing circumstances that we haven’t seen since 2009 in terms of how many brand new homes are sitting on the market for sale and sales volumes sitting at 30 year lows. What is going on and what does this implicate about the broader economy?
US JOB CUT ANNOUNCEMENTS ARE SKYROCKETING⚠️ US-based firms announced 57,727 job cuts in November, the third-highest number since the 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS. Year-to-date there have been 722,566 job cuts, the largest amount since 2009 (Financial Crisis), excluding 2020 Crisis. ⚠️US JOB CUT ANNOUNCEMENTS ARE SKYROCKETING⚠️ US-based firms announced 57,727 job cuts in November, the third-highest …
Several critical financial measures continue to drop, reaching rather obscene comparisons. At first, that doesn’t seem to make any sense; how would today be seen as similar to February 2009, for example. However difficult the economy is now, it certainly isn’t that bad. What these measures are indicating go beyond specific moments, instead providing clues …
by confoundedinterest17 Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. We did get fooled again! The problem with the national debt can’t be fixed with Mitch McConnell still in the Senate and too many Obama-era political hacks still in Washington DC. The Obama/Biden era began in 2009 and it still exists despite Trump winning …
100% Banks are sitting on over $600B of unrealized losses — Vimos_crypto (@Vimos_crypto) September 17, 2024 "The global economy is past the cyclical peak as it decelerates from its above-trend momentum on a slew of weaker-than-expected economic data." – BofA Samadhiya pic.twitter.com/X9nbWAO8MV — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 17, 2024
Layoffs continue to grow in the tech industry Tech companies continued to cut jobs at a rapid pace in August 2024. More than 27,000 workers in the industry lost their jobs as over 40 companies, including big names like Intel, IBM, and Cisco, as well as numerous smaller startups, announced layoffs. To date, more than …
China’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has indeed seen a significant decline. As of the latest reports, FDI into China dropped by 28.2% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since January 2009. This decline reflects broader economic challenges and shifts in global investment patterns. https://twitter.com/joosteninvestor/status/1813953331217436971
Here is a look at delinquency’s. Full disclosure 2009 was 8% delinquent. pic.twitter.com/ckwMsvdw0R — Nathaniel Frank (@Nathaniel8Frank) April 19, 2024 This new record-high vacancy rate is 50 basis points "above the recessionary peaks recorded in 1986 and 1991," an analysis published by Moody's revealed. Read more: https://t.co/f3HLlsWwT4 — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 20, 2024
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, Something has been going very wrong in the US economy for a very long time, and whatever is going wrong accelerated from 2009 to the present. Longtime readers know I’ve covered America’s soaring wealth and income inequality for many years, and so I read economist Noah Smith’s …