A hub for independent voices and hard truths
BREAKING: A recession model that has predicted every single US downturn in 80 years just hit 49%. The threshold is 50%. Every time it has crossed that line, a recession followed within 12 months. No exceptions. And the data behind …
A new debate is spreading across Wall Street. Is the market starting to resemble the period right before the Global Financial Crisis? Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett believes the comparison is becoming harder to ignore. In a recent note, …
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm Is this a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, similar to August 2007? This question will be on the mind of some investors and policymakers this morning as they assess the news that, quoting the FT, the “private credit group …
“The Fed published a research note in March 2025 that almost nobody read. It found that life insurers’ exposure to below-investment-grade debt now exceeds the industry’s exposure to subprime mortgage-backed securities in late 2007. Let that land. The same financial …
Mag 7 cutting buybacks and borrowing while private credit guys talk about heavy drawdowns and yields keep grinding higher is not “AI strength,” it’s stress showing through the paint. Money isn’t cheap anymore, lenders are pulling back, and somehow people …
The market is junked up on margin debt and teetering like it did in 2000 and 2007, ready to implode on anyone dumb enough to stay in. The increase in #margin #debt has outpaced the rise in the #market, as …
Forget 2007. The US consumer today is facing a worse crisis. It's not Systemic Leverage; it's Household Arithmetic. My new memo breaks down the structural squeeze: why the 2026 economy faces a consumer solvency crisis, not a liquidity crisis. — …
pic.twitter.com/T642kqJBaO — McClellan (@MI_Architect) November 11, 2025 A staggering 84% of Gen Z say they’re delaying milestones to buy a house. There’s ‘no single fix’ for the affordability crisis, real estate exec says The American Dream of buying a home …
Remember the very subtle scene in The Big Short where the Moody's rating chick was wearing blinders. pic.twitter.com/Fu7qhSk1xv — Orlando (@Orlando74180344) October 18, 2025 Moody’s says the private credit & banking systems are perfectly “sound.” In 2007, right before the …
“The Fed can’t rescue this in its entirety. You’ve got 4M homes in Texas and 42M across the U.S. at risk of bankruptcy or losing the roof over their heads. That’s nearly 38% of households. The money to pay these …
by confoundedinterest17 The US housing market is a changeling, going from a mega glut during the financial crisis to a tight market, then back to a glut … again. In fact, there are 511,000 new homes for sales in the …
When Japan’s 40-year yield spikes…It’s not just a Japan problem.It’s a global leverage problem ticking louder. — FromRedToRiches (@FromRedToRiches) May 20, 2025 Japan’s 10 year yield the past month💀☠️: I mean this is so far below where their 40 year …
The headlines still dance around the truth, but anyone watching closely knows something is seriously wrong with real estate in 2025. Home prices are starting to slip. Inventory is rising. Buyers are backing away. And this time, consumers are more …
U.S. Profit Outlook is now the most unfavorable since November 2007 🚨 Anything interesting happen in 2008? 🤔👀 pic.twitter.com/NadMu4F7ps — Barchart (@Barchart) April 16, 2025 Wow, that’s a worse print than during the 2001 and 2009 recessions. It’s getting really …
WTF is going on in Canada and Australia? Real estate debt bubble in the US in 2007 looks almost cute in this chart. pic.twitter.com/cBI6fRzPaH — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) April 13, 2025
The ongoing increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the United States has caused panic in the market. Investors are selling off Chinese assets, which is leading to an outflow of capital and a sharp depreciation of the currency. On …
$SPY people believe that the 2007 Great Financial Crash was a large surprise (below) But it was anything but a surprise. The moving averages were textbook. Clear tests of support, followed by a rejection from below twice and then Lehmans …
by Ok_Significance_4008 A high 20-year Treasury yield of 5% can negatively impact the stock market in several ways: Increased borrowing costs: Higher yields make borrowing more expensive for companies, impacting their profitability and potentially slowing down economic growth. This can reduce …
I can do this ALL DAY in CPG. The consumer is dead pic.twitter.com/5vRBTU6sKF — USA Divides by 32 (@sabregold19991) January 8, 2025 Consumer revolving credit in the US just fell off of a cliff. The last 6-month drop is even …
We are on the same rate-cut path as 2007. Remember what happened in 2008? — Steven Van Metre – AI 👑 (@MetreSteven) December 18, 2024 https://twitter.com/Logisticsexpert/status/1869522799389454585 Maybe he is finally starting to see the stagflation? — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) December …
In 2021 there were three spikes in Nasdaq Hindenburg Omens. The first two were followed by corrections -10%. The third one in November 2021 was followed by bear market. We see the same pattern in 2024. Two corrections (April, July) …
Anyone who thinks this continues until the end of the year is smoking crack and/or your typical investment advisor. pic.twitter.com/QLqcgJr0tD — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) November 20, 2024 Flight to safety intensifies. https://t.co/VKUtt0tWsh pic.twitter.com/Yp57HNCMQg — The Great Martis (@great_martis) November 20, 2024 …
We’re really in a ‘holding pattern’ is it comes to the labor market – the data continues to worsen while the market has pulled down its pants and continues to moon the labor market. Unemployment will need to rise further …
4/ The financial pressure on consumers is evident in the increasing number of defaults Consumer defaults is now climbing at the fastest pace since 2007 While still below 2007 peaks, if current trends persist, we could hit 2008 levels H1 …
ALL rate cut cycles that began with a 50 bps rate cut came during a crisis: 1. 2001, during the Dot-com bubble 2. 2007, during the Financial Crisis The Fed has sided with 25 basis point rate cuts at the …
2/ Oct 2007: Gold made a new ATH aftr 1.5 years Soon after, the unemployment rate began rising rapidly And economic growth slowed down This ended in the 2008 Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/Wybfid9wfx — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 13, 2024 4/ …
1) This Florida housing downturn keeps getting more intense by the day. With a combination of investors, builders, and inflation-burdened homeowners off-loading houses at a historically fast clip. This increase in listings is now corresponding with a slowdown in demand, …
by confoundedinterest17 Housing in the US is simply unaffordable. Particularly since home prices and mortgage rates have soared under Biden. .Owning a house is less affordable for average earners in the US than at anytime in 17 years. The costs of …
In June, construction industry saw largest increase in layoff announcements per @ChallengerGray … hasn't seen a spike that large since September 2007 pic.twitter.com/6zee9KAtVf — Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 3, 2024 Continuing claims a new cycle high Approaching 1.9mm #MacroEdge https://t.co/sDxirI4NOC …