2007.

Moody’s recession model hits 49%, the last time it sat this high outside of an actual recession was September 2007. The Fed’s worst nightmare is getting worse. System looks stable until it doesn’t, 2008 veteran warns blind spots can hide the next crisis

BREAKING: A recession model that has predicted every single US downturn in 80 years just hit 49%. The threshold is 50%. Every time it has crossed that line, a recession followed within 12 months. No exceptions. And the data behind this reading doesn’t even include the Iran war yet… Moody’s built an AI model trained …

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Is this a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, similar to August 2007? Blue Owl permanently restricts withdrawals from private retail debt fund. Remember this scene in The Big Short?

Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm Is this a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, similar to August 2007? This question will be on the mind of some investors and policymakers this morning as they assess the news that, quoting the FT, the “private credit group Blue Owl will permanently restrict investors from withdrawing their cash from its inaugural private retail …

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Fed research confirms life insurers’ exposure to private credit exceeds 2007 subprime levels. Commercial real estate crisis ignored for years, now media blames AI

“The Fed published a research note in March 2025 that almost nobody read. It found that life insurers’ exposure to below-investment-grade debt now exceeds the industry’s exposure to subprime mortgage-backed securities in late 2007. Let that land. The same financial system that nearly collapsed from subprime has quietly built a larger position in an asset …

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Wall Street’s AI darlings hit funding wall after lenders tighten and long term yields surge. Eerie repeat of 2000 and 2007 as consumer discretionary stocks sink for months while S&P hits new highs classic pre crash setup returns

Mag 7 cutting buybacks and borrowing while private credit guys talk about heavy drawdowns and yields keep grinding higher is not “AI strength,” it’s stress showing through the paint. Money isn’t cheap anymore, lenders are pulling back, and somehow people still act like companies can burn billions a quarter forever. Then you look at the …

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Families are paying 24% more for home appliances, 7% more for electronics and 6% more for clothes this Black Friday. America’s small businesses are barely surviving. Forget 2007. The US consumer today is facing a worse crisis.

Forget 2007. The US consumer today is facing a worse crisis. It's not Systemic Leverage; it's Household Arithmetic. My new memo breaks down the structural squeeze: why the 2026 economy faces a consumer solvency crisis, not a liquidity crisis. — Craig Shapiro (@ces921) December 3, 2025 This Black Friday, shoppers paid 7% more for electronics, …

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We are already in a similar crash to 2007, yet…again… No one is talking about it. This will be 5x 2008.

pic.twitter.com/T642kqJBaO — McClellan (@MI_Architect) November 11, 2025 A staggering 84% of Gen Z say they’re delaying milestones to buy a house. There’s ‘no single fix’ for the affordability crisis, real estate exec says The American Dream of buying a home is still alive, but the path to get there looks very different from decades past. …

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Look up what Moody said in 2007 about the housing market. This is what ALWAYS happens before a crash

Remember the very subtle scene in The Big Short where the Moody's rating chick was wearing blinders. pic.twitter.com/Fu7qhSk1xv — Orlando (@Orlando74180344) October 18, 2025 Moody’s says the private credit & banking systems are perfectly “sound.” In 2007, right before the Great Recession, they also rated nearly 45,000 mortgage-related securities as triple-A. By 2010, 73% had …

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Whistleblower Mitch Vexler says we’re sitting on a school bond time bomb bigger than 2007.

“The Fed can’t rescue this in its entirety. You’ve got 4M homes in Texas and 42M across the U.S. at risk of bankruptcy or losing the roof over their heads. That’s nearly 38% of households. The money to pay these bonds doesn’t exist. You can’t get blood out of a stone.” When… pic.twitter.com/dSuXD5SIPf — ITM …

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Changeling! 511,000 New Homes For Sale In US, Highest Inventory Since October 2007 (Mortgage Rates About The Same As In 2007 But Home Prices Are 87.5% Higher Today Than In 2007!)

by confoundedinterest17 The US housing market is a changeling, going from a mega glut during the financial crisis to a tight market, then back to a glut … again. In fact, there are 511,000 new homes for sales in the US, the highest inventory since the financial crisis. Combine all-time high home prices with RELATIVELY …

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Japan’s 40-year bond yield just spiked to 3.58%, the highest level since 2007. The debt downgrade from Moody’s forces the bond markets to take down the weaker hands first?

When Japan’s 40-year yield spikes…It’s not just a Japan problem.It’s a global leverage problem ticking louder. — FromRedToRiches (@FromRedToRiches) May 20, 2025 Japan’s 10 year yield the past month💀☠️: I mean this is so far below where their 40 year bond is trading which trades at 3.5% plus. Inflation is way higher than 1.52% My …

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This may be worse than 2007: Real estate is not crashing yet. But the ice is cracking. And the rescue team is missing.

The headlines still dance around the truth, but anyone watching closely knows something is seriously wrong with real estate in 2025. Home prices are starting to slip. Inventory is rising. Buyers are backing away. And this time, consumers are more financially broken than ever before. In November 2007, home prices began to decline. One month …

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US profit outlook worst since november 2007. Empire State Survey worse print than 2001 and 2009 recessions

U.S. Profit Outlook is now the most unfavorable since November 2007 🚨 Anything interesting happen in 2008? 🤔👀 pic.twitter.com/NadMu4F7ps — Barchart (@Barchart) April 16, 2025 Wow, that’s a worse print than during the 2001 and 2009 recessions. It’s getting really more and more difficult to imagine how we can avoid a recession right now. pic.twitter.com/ycRrqfEVge …

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China’s currency has devalued to 2007 level.

The ongoing increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the United States has caused panic in the market. Investors are selling off Chinese assets, which is leading to an outflow of capital and a sharp depreciation of the currency. On the night of April 8th, the offshore Chinese yuan hit a new low, dropping from …

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$SPY signals are echoing the 2007 crash, with market patterns showing familiar signs. The tech and housing bubbles are bursting in tandem, while the boiling frog syndrome keeps investors oblivious.

$SPY people believe that the 2007 Great Financial Crash was a large surprise (below) But it was anything but a surprise. The moving averages were textbook. Clear tests of support, followed by a rejection from below twice and then Lehmans collapsed. What sometimes clouds… pic.twitter.com/2LaGy1a0z3 — The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) April 2, 2025 Tech and …

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The 20-year Treasury Yield Topped 5% Wednesday For The First Time Since October 2023 -One of The Highest Yield Since 2007

by Ok_Significance_4008 A high 20-year Treasury yield of 5% can negatively impact the stock market in several ways: Increased borrowing costs: Higher yields make borrowing more expensive for companies, impacting their profitability and potentially slowing down economic growth. This can reduce investor confidence and negatively impact stock prices. Reduced attractiveness of stocks: When Treasury yields rise, they …

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Consumer revolving credit in the US just fell off of a cliff! Fed repeats 2007 error: Fighting inflation while recession looms in 2025.

I can do this ALL DAY in CPG. The consumer is dead pic.twitter.com/5vRBTU6sKF — USA Divides by 32 (@sabregold19991) January 8, 2025 Consumer revolving credit in the US just fell off of a cliff. The last 6-month drop is even larger than the drop seen in 2008, 2nd largest behind 2020. What is happening here? …

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We are on the same rate-cut path as 2007. Remember what happened in 2008? Powell becoming extra-hawkish likely means the labor market is about to crack

We are on the same rate-cut path as 2007. Remember what happened in 2008? — Steven Van Metre – AI 👑 (@MetreSteven) December 18, 2024 https://twitter.com/Logisticsexpert/status/1869522799389454585 Maybe he is finally starting to see the stagflation? — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) December 18, 2024 Rates will rise until it collapses the stock market bubble Collapsing stock market …

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2024 mirrors 2021: Hindenburg Omen triggers, followed by two corrections and possible bear market. In Dec 2007, the Fed cut rates despite inflation concerns. History repeats.

In 2021 there were three spikes in Nasdaq Hindenburg Omens. The first two were followed by corrections -10%. The third one in November 2021 was followed by bear market. We see the same pattern in 2024. Two corrections (April, July) and a third spike in November: A Hindenburg… pic.twitter.com/VSngerA3Hl — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 13, 2024 …

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Believing this rally lasts year-end? Pure fantasy. U.S. 1-month momentum hits record overbought levels unseen since 2007. Flight to safety intensifies.

Anyone who thinks this continues until the end of the year is smoking crack and/or your typical investment advisor. pic.twitter.com/QLqcgJr0tD — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) November 20, 2024 Flight to safety intensifies. https://t.co/VKUtt0tWsh pic.twitter.com/Yp57HNCMQg — The Great Martis (@great_martis) November 20, 2024 U.S. momentum peaks; billionaires and banks hoard cash. Bubble burst incoming. 🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨 THE U.S …

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2007 similarities continue to pile on… This is now the weakest labor market conditions for job seekers since late 2007.

We’re really in a ‘holding pattern’ is it comes to the labor market – the data continues to worsen while the market has pulled down its pants and continues to moon the labor market. Unemployment will need to rise further for impacts to be realized in markets. — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) September 24, 2024 07 …

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Rising consumer defaults reflect financial pressure, climbing fastest since 2007; 2008 levels imminent by 2025.

4/ The financial pressure on consumers is evident in the increasing number of defaults Consumer defaults is now climbing at the fastest pace since 2007 While still below 2007 peaks, if current trends persist, we could hit 2008 levels H1 2025 pic.twitter.com/K1j77j1n8L — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 24, 2024 ShopperTrak same-store retail traffic is a …

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Gold’s new all-time high echoes October 2007, signaling potential economic trouble like the 2008 crisis.

2/ Oct 2007: Gold made a new ATH aftr 1.5 years Soon after, the unemployment rate began rising rapidly And economic growth slowed down This ended in the 2008 Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/Wybfid9wfx — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 13, 2024 4/ Today, Gold has once again made a new ATH And Silver has also been moving …

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Housing inventory in Orlando is now spiking like it’s 2007.

1) This Florida housing downturn keeps getting more intense by the day. With a combination of investors, builders, and inflation-burdened homeowners off-loading houses at a historically fast clip. This increase in listings is now corresponding with a slowdown in demand, which is… — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) July 22, 2024 3) Something interesting about Florida is …

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Simply Unaffordable! Home Affordability in the US Sinks to Lowest Point Since 2007, Home Prices UP 35%, Mortgage Rates UP 148% Under Biden (Mortgage Purchase Applications DOWN 12% YoY)

by confoundedinterest17 Housing in the US is simply unaffordable. Particularly since home prices and mortgage rates have soared under Biden. .Owning a house is less affordable for average earners in the US than at anytime in 17 years. The costs of a typical home — including mortgage payments, property insurance and taxes — consumed 35.1% of the …

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June construction layoffs spike, highest since September 2007. Continuing claims hit a new cycle high, approaching 1.9 million.

In June, construction industry saw largest increase in layoff announcements per @ChallengerGray … hasn't seen a spike that large since September 2007 pic.twitter.com/6zee9KAtVf — Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 3, 2024 Continuing claims a new cycle high Approaching 1.9mm #MacroEdge https://t.co/sDxirI4NOC pic.twitter.com/Rod0M3P2mT — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) July 3, 2024 Nice little pop in job openings in …

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