As ominous signs of economic distress emerge, the US teeters on the brink of a financial precipice. Subprime auto loan delinquencies soar to 2008 levels, signaling an impending crisis fueled by a doubling of delinquency rates in just three years. Simultaneously, the housing market grapples with a catastrophic collapse, with mortgage demand plummeting to its lowest levels since 1995, spelling disaster for home sales and igniting fears of a prolonged downturn. Amidst the chaos, warnings abound of an unprecedented decline in home buying conditions, painting a dire portrait of economic stability unraveling before our eyes.
The government doesn't solve the problem, they delay the reckoning by making it worse pic.twitter.com/NwqEq5xq3W
— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) April 24, 2024
Also, credit card delinquency rates in Q4 2023 were the worst on record.
Almost 3.5% of card balances were at least 30 days past due
Credit card serious delinquency rates (90+ days) are rising at the fastest pace since the Great Financial Crisishttps://t.co/ivOy8TbtHR
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 24, 2024
1) Collapsing mortgage demand is a huge problem for the Housing Market.
Because roughly 70% of home sales in America require a mortgage to complete the transaction (Source: NAR).
So if mortgage demand is at the lowest level in 28 years…well do the math on housing demand…
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 24, 2024
4) So, how does on interpret this data for its implications on the future housing market in 2024?
Well, for starters, I suspect there will be a huge drop-off in buyer demand once the typical spring selling season peaks in mid-May.
Many sellers are currently still pricing their…
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 24, 2024
6) It's equally astounding when you consider the fact that the "Months of Supply" on the Housing Market is now at its highest rate in over 4 years.
Redfin shows Months of Supply currently at 3.3 months.
Above last year. And well above pandemic boom in 2021-2022.
Indicating… pic.twitter.com/kBxBuxe2Li
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 24, 2024
WARNING: Home buying conditions have fallen off a cliff
Current levels have NEVER been seen since in the last 60+ years pic.twitter.com/3k2IZwenDa
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 24, 2024