Strong growth doesn’t guarantee recession avoidance; US grew 2.5% pre-Great Recession onset.

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Fantastic point!

ALSO, NBER recession announcement comes with a LONG LAG

In the last 6 recessions, announcement of when a recession started was 234 days after the GDP data was released on average

The Great Financial Crisis of 07-09 was announced a year after it started

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 19, 2024

See also We've never seen the S&P 500 at all time highs with breadth this negative. Flawless 75-year recession predictor trigger. The Titanic has hit the iceberg. Secure your lifeboat before it’s too late.

See also California's job market weakens; Nevada faces early labor market recession signs.