via Genzinvestor16180339
The average drink is now $7–$9. When people can make it at home for ~50 cents.
Q2 FY2026 already showed demand comes back at current prices. US transactions were up 4.4% while ticket still grew 2.6%. So this isn’t a “no demand” problem. But it also doesn’t mean pricing is optimal, it just means they fixed operations enough to bring core customers back.
The unit economics are where this gets interesting. Product costs are ~31% of revenue, so every drink has ~69% gross margin. The marginal cost of the next drink is basically just ingredients. Labor, rent, and that $500M investment are already in place. So even if you drop a drink from $7 to $5, you’re still getting ~$3 of contribution on something that costs maybe ~$1.50–$2 to make.
Now layer in behavior. There’s a huge group of customers sitting on the margin choosing “I’ll just make it at home.” That decision flips fast once price moves into a more reasonable convenience range. $3–$5 feels like a quick purchase. $7–$9 feels like a decision.
Sooooo
High prices maximize revenue per order but push marginal customers out of the system
Lower prices reduce ticket but can meaningfully increase frequency and bring back lapsed users
And because most of the cost base is fixed, those incremental orders are high-margin.
They don’t need to turn Starbucks into a discount brand. But even a modest move down on core items could pull a lot of at-home consumption back into stores and increase total profit, not reduce it.
Or am I missing something? I don’t understand why they would price so high when i am sure they have very good margins due to their huge supply chain.
NO POSITION