JUST IN 🚨: Secured Overnight Financing Rate jumps to 5.4%, the highest level in history pic.twitter.com/M7i8gcvpTG
— Barchart (@Barchart) July 3, 2024
🚨BREAKING
**SOFR Surge – July 2, 2024**
– **Current Rate**: SOFR jumped to 5.4%, highest EVER
•A rise in SOFR typically signals 📉 liquidity in the market
• When SOFR 📈, it can indicate:
– Strain on bank balance sheets, often due to factors like heavy Treasury debt… pic.twitter.com/jqbbB3GnC4— The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) July 3, 2024
The last time the market was this lopsided, Lehman filed for bankruptcy pic.twitter.com/oheN2eIiSH
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 2, 2024
Bloomberg analysis of past FOMC minutes (detailed record of the Fed meetings) suggests that the 2 most frequent reasons for Fed slashing rates are:
1) worsening credit conditions
2) issues within the global economyDoes the Fed know something we don't?👇t.co/xRwRIusQDV
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) July 3, 2024
2/ Consumer loan default rate has closely correlated with market volatility
⬆️ defaults = ⬇️ economy = ⬆️ volatility
⬇️ defaults = ⬆️ economy = ⬇️ volatility pic.twitter.com/v1XDeA05o1
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) July 2, 2024
4/ However, in our opinion, this divergence won’t last long
Because the real negative impact of rate hikes is felt 18 months after
Typically between the 6th and 9th quarters pic.twitter.com/SGmxTPVeIF
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) July 2, 2024
More than 50% of 74 US CPI components are running below 2.0% YoY for the first time since 2020 pic.twitter.com/Aqn1QwfdKf
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 2, 2024
Can $SPX avoid a crash this time?
In the last 4 instances when the % Yield Curve Inversion has gone above 70% and then back to 50%, we saw massive drawdowns for the index.
We are not there. Yet… pic.twitter.com/eFbPlN5cb2
— Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) July 2, 2024
What just happened in the bond market?
The 10-year note yield is now up over 20 basis points in since Friday's intraday low.
That's 20 basis points in a matter of hours without any material news.
For the first time in almost 5 weeks, the 10-year note yield is set to break… pic.twitter.com/XPz1RoVlTz
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 1, 2024
Nice little pop in job openings in the JOLTS release this morning. Unfortunately, the more timely series from Indeed and LinkUp are still pointing down. pic.twitter.com/0E9JLac8OI
— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) July 2, 2024