1) According to John Burns, from 2022-24, all of the growth in renter households came from immigration.
While only 5% of buyer demand came from immigration. pic.twitter.com/hrjxgn5n1h
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) August 14, 2025
3) According to RealPage, there were 227k apartment units absorbed in Q2 2025, which was above last year.
And allowed the trailing 12 absorption figure to hit a record.
Something many apartment landlords are celebrating today. pic.twitter.com/yDhHiu83Lm
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) August 14, 2025
5) But I have a sneaking suspicion these demand levels won't last, given the backdrop of collapsing immigration.
We went from having around 200k border crossings per month for 3 years, to less than 10k.
That's a 95% reduction.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) August 14, 2025
7) Suggesting that there will be a hit to apartment rental demand at some point in the future.
The question is when. And how big will the negative impact be?
An immigrant's journey into finding an apartment in the U.S. isn't straightforward, and there could be a significant lag…
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) August 14, 2025
9) Based on this, I suspect apartment demand still has another 6 months of resilience from the surge in immigration that occurred in 2021-24.
But once the page turns to 2026, we could start seeing meaningful slowdowns in renter absorption, particularly in markets that are…
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) August 14, 2025
https://twitter.com/VladTheInflator/status/1955786967704330504