SPC has issued a wide scale alert.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Latest models are trending to a bad scenario.
Massive rains, strong tornadoes, possible blizzard.
Stay tuned for updates.
11:56pm CST #SPC Day2 Outlook Enhanced Risk: Tuesday across parts of southeastern Alabama northern Florida parts of the Carolina Piedmont and the Carolina coastal plain https://t.co/Y1WiOd8TQQ pic.twitter.com/n8hpcPgcWr
— NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) January 8, 2024
This risk is driven by a 10%# probability of significant tornadoes. I’ll be live streaming tomorrow & we will be covering the snow on the north side, too. https://t.co/bqv9VBPzfc
— Ryan Hall, Y’all (@ryanhallyall) January 7, 2024
0Z Day Tornado Forecast (New New 2022 Models) pic.twitter.com/KbiPfyTPMK
— Nadocast (@nadocast) January 8, 2024
Regarding tomorrow's tornado threat, it's important to remember the background climatology.
According to research by Thompson et al. 2012, a great discriminator between sig. QLCS and supercell tornado environments is MLCAPE.
Tomorrow's MLCAPE is upper quartile for winter time. pic.twitter.com/gKYXmbUHMx
— Gabe Garfield (@WxGabe) January 8, 2024
The National Weather Service in Mobile, AL has released one of the strongest wording Area Forecast Discussions I’ve ever seen. An extreme environment will be in place tomorrow night. Destructive tornadoes are, unfortunately, a real possibility if everything lines up!
https://twitter.com/_/status/1744145496191504769
Today through Wednesday morning FLOOD potential with melting snowpack in play for northeast USA in addition to the HEAVY RAIN. WPC at level 3 of 4 with risk. pic.twitter.com/CJ39loo1Kd
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) January 8, 2024
h/t DOORBERT