In a surprising turn of events for the leading stock of 2023, the market cap soared, then failed to confirm its recent Tech high, now lagging behind the overall market. This mirrors the warning signs observed during the last market peak, indicating a potential bull trap.
Adding to the concerns, the ISEE call/put index has stayed above 100 for an extended period, the longest since May 2010, signaling potential market instability.
The ominous phrase “Flash Crash” looms large as financial strain and increasing interest rates have led to a rise in automobile repossessions. The average new car loan now stands at a staggering $40,000, with interest rates hitting 7.4% for new cars and 11.6% for used cars. The situation is eerily reminiscent of the financial crisis, with more Americans struggling to afford their car payments.
The fall in oil prices reflects a larger issue – reduced working hours leading to decreased spending, ultimately impacting driving habits. Real GDP figures, influenced by inaccurate inflation reporting, paint a misleading picture. While people are buying less, they are spending more, creating economic uncertainty and job security concerns.
Every significant and abrupt downturn in interest rates has historically correlated with a spike in the VIX, indicating increased market volatility. The Fed’s decision to continue shrinking its balance sheet raises questions about potential dislocations, particularly in crucial markets like repurchase agreements. The recent stresses in these markets, reminiscent of the turmoil in 2019, emphasize the delicate balance the Fed must strike in managing its monetary policy. Investors are closely watching for signals of a looming economic downturn as various factors contribute to an increasingly complex financial landscape.
1. Only fundamentals matter
2. Only technicals matter
3. Only options gamma matters
4. Only social mood mattersA. Only Santa Pause matters
And then, only who can get out first matters. pic.twitter.com/GJXhdoELg2
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 16, 2023
The number one stock of 2023 w/market cap gained, failed to confirm this latest Tech high, and is now lagging the market.
The same warning that came at the last top.
The last stage broadening of breadth is a bull trap. pic.twitter.com/OxwdL02OhS
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 17, 2023
The ISEE call/put index has been above 100 for 28 straight days. The most since May 2010.
Flash Crash. pic.twitter.com/mUSmcQvXGC
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 16, 2023
#recession … #GFC2 US #consumer #debt Bubble edition t.co/ORiV1imkvR pic.twitter.com/71VUGgirnk
— Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) December 16, 2023
Underwater auto loans hit 3 year high.
Oil is falling because people are working less. Less hours = less spending money = less driving
Real GDP numbers are an illusion because the reported inflation numbers aren't accurate. People are buying less but spending more and now they're worried about losing their job. t.co/K3Fd2l9ICV
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 16, 2023
Every time theres been a significant and sudden down turn in interest rates, the vix has spiked.
….until now… pic.twitter.com/sxpp0CXPWT
— Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time (@frankoz95967943) December 16, 2023
The Fed’s shrinking balance sheet is worrying a key corner of US financial markets