This kind of labor data doesn’t drift by accident. When cuts hit this hard and long-term unemployment jumps past that line, it usually means the slowdown already slipped out of control and nobody wants to admit it yet.
People don’t realize how badly the economy is doing. It’s literally unprecedented. https://t.co/XbdXHHNmw8
— Andrew Lokenauth | TheFinanceNewsletter.com (@FluentInFinance) November 14, 2025
Host: Food prices are not way down, and there are other bad signs. The housing market, foreclosures jumped to 20% in October. Employers are warning next spring's college graduate hiring market could be even worse than this year's. Seasonal hiring is at its weakest since the Great… pic.twitter.com/W0xKscHewN
— FactPost (@factpostnews) November 14, 2025
The specifics of the recent labor market data paint a sobering picture. Job growth has clearly moderated, with year-over-year payroll growth in October 2025 estimated at a mere 0.5%, a stark contrast to the 1.7% seen at the beginning of the year. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) National Employment Report for October 2025 indicated a modest increase of just 42,000 private sector jobs, a slight rebound from two consecutive months of declines, but still a far slower pace than earlier in the year. Average monthly job additions over the preceding three months have plummeted to a meager 29,300.
A particularly alarming trend is the dramatic surge in layoffs. U.S. employers announced an astounding 153,074 planned job cuts in October 2025, representing a 175% increase from the previous year and marking the highest figure for any October since 2003. Year-to-date, over 1.1 million jobs have been cut, a level reminiscent of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. This “job bloodbath” has disproportionately affected sectors such as technology and finance, driven by factors like rising operational costs, weakening demand, and the increasing adoption of automation and artificial intelligence. The unemployment rate has steadily climbed in 2025, increasing from 4.0% to 4.3% by August, with some forecasts suggesting a potential rise to 4.5% for October. A deeply concerning development is the sharp rise in long-term unemployment (individuals jobless for 27 weeks or longer), which surged from 21.5% of the total unemployed in August 2024 to 25.7% by August 2025. Historically, breaching this 25% threshold has often coincided with or preceded economic recessions.
US recession probability now at a staggering 93%, says UBS – here’s what you need to track, hard data analysis, warning signs, employment trends, consumer, industrial indicators, aggregate outlook
US recession probability – UBS warns that the probability of a U.S. recession has risen to 93%. The bank’s report cites data from May through July 2025 showing elevated risk levels. UBS describes these levels as historically worrying given their past accuracy in identifying economic turning points.
US markets struggle amid tech sell-off and economic uncertainty
Wall Street endured its worst day in a month on Thursday as fears that tech companies are now overvalued loom large
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/13/us-markets-struggle-tech
Things are so hard out there we’re now burning through our retirement funds.
These should never be touched. Sad. https://t.co/CuJyMQEA7h
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 14, 2025
https://twitter.com/stelzner_n1150/status/1989028913767461118
Bond erosion intensifies whilst the market sells off.
This not good
This very bad. pic.twitter.com/lztj1ASynt— The Great Martis (@great_martis) November 14, 2025
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1989255466422358252