In a dramatic turn, interest rate futures now forecast less than two rate cuts for the entirety of 2024, a stark departure from earlier projections of six to eight reductions beginning in March. This shift in sentiment reflects growing uncertainty as CPI inflation consistently exceeds expectations, prompting cautious anticipation of tomorrow’s crucial PCE inflation data.
So now we have:
1) 4 mths of hotter inflation
2) Nearly 1.5 million full-time jobs decline with 1.9M part-time jobs created over a year
3) $2 trillion annual deficits
4) The market expecting interest rate HIKES this yearWhat could possibly go wrong?👇https://t.co/0tty0Bjv0A
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 25, 2024
Tomorrow's PCE inflation report is absolutely MASSIVE:
We are going into this report with the highest stakes since the Fed started raising rates.
CPI inflation is up for 2 straight months and has been above expectations for 4 months.
PPI inflation is also up for 2 straight… pic.twitter.com/q3nynVxIus
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 25, 2024
Market Expectations for Federal Funds Rate
Throughout the year, market expectations have changed for the federal funds rate. As inflation figures have remained persistent, many FOMC members, including Jerome Powell, have suggested that rates will continue to remain elevated.… pic.twitter.com/Oa3Qz8xgea
— Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) April 19, 2024