Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The energy titan reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $3.2 billion this morning, fueled by higher realized margins and the Hormuz blockade… Upstream plant reliability hit 95.7%, while stronger midstream performance helped offset the impact of regional disruptions in the Middle East… Reported profit for the quarter hit $3.8 billion, a massive swing from …
2007: Rodney Alexander ($15,000) 2009: Office of Carolyn McCarthy (2 cases resulting in 1 settlement) ($8,000) 2010: Eric Massa I ($85,000) 2010: Eric Massa II ($20,000) 2010: Eric Massa III ($10,000) 2010: John Conyers I ($50,000) 2014: Blake Farenthold ($84,000) 2014: John Conyers (Severance pay $27,111.75) 2017: Patrick Meehan (2 cases resulting in 1 settlement) …
BREAKING: Tucker Carlson hits all-time high in the 2028 Presidential Election odds, as he teases a potential run. 7% chance. pic.twitter.com/RZbGz7SMmK — Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 1, 2026
I don’t think the bond market is going to put up with this war much longer. They forced Trump to “pause” on the tariffs last April and they’ll do the same thing with this debacle in the Middle East if it doesn’t end soon. https://t.co/QlSTyYAKGd — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 5, 2026 20Y and 30Y …
The HSBC factory index climbed to 54.7 in April, but the celebration is muted, the Iran war has officially turned global production into a cost-push nightmare… Input costs are rising at the second-fastest rate in four years, the shipping blockade is forcing firms to choose between eating the bill or passing it to the consumer… …
by Michael Would you pay 8 dollars for a gallon of gasoline? I know that may sound crazy to many of you, but that is what some residents of Los Angeles are paying right now. Sadly, the west coast is more dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf than anywhere else in the continental United …
by Michael So much can change in a single day. In just the last 24 hours, the ceasefire with Iran has ended, fighting has erupted once again in the Strait of Hormuz, six Iranian fast attack boats have been sunk, and one of the most important oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates has been …
🇩🇪🇮🇷 Germany's Chancellor just issued a 3-front ultimatum to Tehran: Stop attacking the UAE, lift the Hormuz blockade, and drop the nuclear program. Merz put it bluntly: "Tehran must return to the negotiating table and stop holding the region and the world hostage." Europe has… https://t.co/SjAx6lHBZK pic.twitter.com/tCKsba6vWG — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 4, 2026
🇪🇬 EgyptAir just suspended all flights to Dubai, Sharjah, and Abu Dhabi until further notice. Even the usually chill routes between Egypt and the UAE are getting hit hard by the Iran fallout. Airspace restrictions and rising tensions are causing major headaches for travelers… https://t.co/k8NTVgezDf pic.twitter.com/tTMQHyJWJW — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 4, 2026
The meme stock king is attempting a massive pivot, GameStop disclosed a 5% stake in eBay today, proposing an all cash and stock buyout… eBay shares surged 5.6% on the news, GameStop shares fell 4%, investors weigh the reality of a brick and mortar retailer swallowing a digital giant… Ryan Cohen’s latest gambit aims to …
Ask it differently: “Sir, can Barack Obama run for a third term?” pic.twitter.com/t3ImzVQREm — The Solutions Party (@_SolutionsParty) May 4, 2026
Severe droughts developing throughout the US are causing several states to impose water restrictions, as some American towns fear they will run out of water within weeks. The US Drought Monitor, the nation’s weekly map showing where and how severe drought conditions are, has warned that the situation has already reached ‘extreme’ or ‘exceptional’ levels …
🚨🇦🇪🇮🇷 New footage from Fujairah tonight after Iranian strikes This is the terminal the world rerouted its oil through when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. The bypass route. The backup plan. It's on fire. https://t.co/bdVrfYpFDF pic.twitter.com/LFqQGKBfyv — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 4, 2026
Secret Service agents exchanged fire with an armed man on the National Mall near the White House this evening. The area went into a short lockdown while teams cleared the scene. One juvenile bystander was grazed but no officials were injured. The suspect is in custody as the investigation moves quickly. Eyewitnesses described people scattering …
A United Airlines Boeing 767 struck a light pole and tractor trailer on the New Jersey Turnpike while approaching Newark Liberty International Airport this evening. The plane carried 221 passengers and 10 crew members with no serious injuries reported on board. The truck driver suffered minor injuries and was taken to hospital. The FAA and …
"If you keep firing missiles I'll be forced to extend the ceasefire by another 14 days" — Mike1010011 (@mike1010011) May 4, 2026 TRUMP: – IRAN TAKING SHOTS AT SOUTH KOREAN CARGO SHIP DURING PROJECT FREEDOM – TIME FOR SOUTH KOREA TO COME AND JOIN IRAN MISSION – WE’VE SHOT DOWN SEVEN SMALL BOATS, IT'S ALL …
Trump on Oil Prices: Everybody was wrong. They thought energy would be at $300. It’s at like 100. And I think it’s going down. There's a lot of energy out there on ships all over the world that are loaded up with it. They can't do much with it because they got, uh, kidnapped by… …
The latest CPI data highlights a stubborn 3.3% annual inflation rate today, energy costs are the primary driver of the middle class squeeze… Gasoline prices jumped 21.2% in the latest monthly window, the Hormuz blockade is effectively taxing every American at the pump… Shelter inflation slowed to 3.0%, the slowest pace since 2021, but core …
The Nasdaq is on track for its best month since 2020, even as the physical economy faces a brutal energy squeeze from the Hormuz blockade… Analysts say the $5 trillion milestone makes a stock split likely by year end, but for now the bots are the only thing keeping the market afloat… Silicon is the …
The telehealth leader reported a strong start to 2026 tonight, raising its first quarter revenue outlook to a range of $600M to $625M… Adjusted EBITDA margins are holding at 9% as the company successfully scales its subscription model in a high inflation landscape… The stock is seeing a “healthcare hedge” bump in after hours trading, …
The luxury EV maker reported a difficult first quarter tonight, with a market cap sitting at a precarious $2.39 billion as debt concerns mount… Management is hosting a call to discuss the results, but the early data shows the high interest rate environment is suffocating the luxury electric market… Production and delivery numbers are struggling …
The data giant just released a monster Q1 report after the bell, reporting revenue of $1.63 billion and crushing the $1.54 billion Wall Street target… Earnings came in at 33 cents per share, well above the 28 cent consensus, as the company’s Rule of 40 score hit a staggering 145%… US Commercial revenue skyrocketed 133% …
https://t.co/D8Z3smnvqe https://t.co/dPfcSzunQS — Megan Cassella (@mmcassella) May 4, 2026 U.S. Secret Service personnel are on the scene of an officer-involved shooting at 15th Street and Independence Avenue in Washington, D.C. One individual was shot by law enforcement; their condition is currently unknown. Please avoid the area as emergency crews are responding. pic.twitter.com/LNUTL2F3gM — U.S. Secret …
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is blaming “judicial overreach” for the carrier’s collapse today, saying the blocked JetBlue merger was a suicide pact… United and Delta shares are drifting higher as they prepare to feast on Spirit’s carcass, but the broader sector is terrified of the fuel bill… Budget travelers are finding $400 round-trips for routes …
Borrowing costs surged again this morning, the 30-year fixed rate hit a new spring high as the bond market reacts to wartime energy spikes… Freddie Mac reports the three-week slide in rates is officially over, the 10-year Treasury yield is dragging home ownership out of reach for thousands… Active listings have finally breached the 1-million …
The greenback is gaining ground this afternoon, the USD/EUR exchange rate hit its highest level of the month as risk sentiment sours… Japan’s currency intervention last week is already fading, the yen is sliding again as the interest rate gap with the U.S. remains a canyon… Safe-haven demand for the dollar is being fueled by …
NEW: Police airlift a crocodile with the body of a 59-year-old businessman inside. Local police in South Africa say they suspected the crocodile ate the man after observing it from drones. They then shot it and airlifted it off. When they landed back on the ground, the… pic.twitter.com/12NBTQbmis — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) May 4, 2026
whopping weekly spikes in average diesel prices over the last week with 10 states seeing prices spike over 40 cents per gallon pic.twitter.com/O4PU8apdiP — Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) May 4, 2026
Dozens of dirt bikes and ATVs will be impounded after a group took over the Bay Bridge, causing eastbound traffic to come to a stop on Sunday, authorities said.
