People often respond to these figures with accusations of polling error, but this isn’t just one rogue result.
High quality, long-running surveys like this from Gallup have been showing a steepening decline in Black and Latino voters identifying as Democrats for several years. pic.twitter.com/XsYGvHS7B9
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) March 11, 2024
In recent times, something noteworthy has been happening in American politics, particularly among non-white voters. Let’s take a closer look.
A recent poll indicated a shift in support, with President Biden leading by less than 10 points among non-white Americans. This marks a significant change from the nearly 50-point lead he had in 2020. It’s like a plot twist in a story we thought we knew well.
Many might dismiss this shift as a polling error, but multiple surveys, including Gallup, show a consistent decline in Black and Latino voters identifying as Democrats over the years. The allegiance of non-white voters to the Democratic Party is now at its lowest since the 1960s.
One contributing factor seems to be the fading influence of historical events. The strong political bonds formed during the civil rights movement and the 1964 realignment are less resonant with recent generations. It’s akin to how a particular song might mean more to your parents than to you.
Interestingly, the usual age-related political trend seen in the broader U.S. population is flipped among Black Americans. The oldest Black Americans, shaped by the political landscape of the 1960s and ’70s, overwhelmingly identify as Democrats. However, the youngest Black voters, growing up in a different environment, show less allegiance, much like a new generation preferring different genres of music.
This shift in political dynamics is not just about numbers; it’s about understanding the evolving perspectives of people in our communities. The narrative of American politics isn’t just unfolding in headlines but in the nuanced conversations of everyday life.
The oldest Black Americans, whose political allegiances were formed in the 1960s and ’70s, identify as Dems over Reps by a margin of 82%.
Among the youngest Black voters, who have grown up in a very different socio-political environment, the Democrat advantage is just 33% pic.twitter.com/QpmBOk7MUE
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) March 11, 2024
The changing image of the parties regarding class and income is also a factor.
In 2020 the richest third of voters favoured the Dems for the first time, and the Republicans improved with the poorest. The GOP now appeals to working- and middle-class voters of all ethnicities pic.twitter.com/OAgWCI92uB
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) March 11, 2024
"Young people want to be free."
Byron Donalds on why Donald Trump is winning over young voters. pic.twitter.com/PlfN3UORgp
— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) March 11, 2024