NAHB index signals impending surge in unemployment.

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A critical indicator, the NAHB Index, renowned for leading the unemployment rate by 18 months with an impressive 90% correlation, is sounding a stark warning. The current regression strongly implies that the unemployment rate is on track to surpass 7% by August.

This alarming projection raises questions about the effectiveness of recent policies, particularly in the context of a de facto open Southern US border over the past three years. Despite estimates suggesting millions of illegal immigrants (ranging from 3 to 9 million) entering the US during this period, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data through ’23 reveals an unexpected trend. Full-time jobs among prime-aged foreign-born individuals, the majority of whom are typically illegal immigrants, have exhibited minimal growth. Furthermore, the majority of full-time employment growth among the foreign-born workforce is observed among individuals aged 45 and above, defying conventional expectations.

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