A critical indicator, the NAHB Index, renowned for leading the unemployment rate by 18 months with an impressive 90% correlation, is sounding a stark warning. The current regression strongly implies that the unemployment rate is on track to surpass 7% by August.
This alarming projection raises questions about the effectiveness of recent policies, particularly in the context of a de facto open Southern US border over the past three years. Despite estimates suggesting millions of illegal immigrants (ranging from 3 to 9 million) entering the US during this period, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data through ’23 reveals an unexpected trend. Full-time jobs among prime-aged foreign-born individuals, the majority of whom are typically illegal immigrants, have exhibited minimal growth. Furthermore, the majority of full-time employment growth among the foreign-born workforce is observed among individuals aged 45 and above, defying conventional expectations.
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The NAHB Index leads the unemployment rate by 18 months with nearly a 90% correlation…
Right now, a regression implies the unemployment rate is headed >7% by August
Will this prove correct? Or will the relationship break? pic.twitter.com/evTVCuJnjm
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) February 21, 2024
After three years of a de facto open Southern US border, allowing millions of illegal immigrants into the US (suggestions range from 3 to 9 million) … How is it also possible (according to BLS data through '23) that full time jobs among the prime aged foreign born have barely… pic.twitter.com/CJ20jw7JuM
— CH (@Econimica) February 22, 2024