In a staggering revelation, the Japanese government itself has embarked on a massive $20 trillion carry trade, a risky financial maneuver that could spell disaster if it goes awry.
The situation is dire: the Japanese government, through a complex web of institutions including the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and state-owned banks, borrows yen at rock-bottom interest rates and invests in higher-yielding assets denominated in other currencies. It’s a high-stakes gamble that has the government trapped in a precarious position.
What’s truly alarming is the potential fallout if this carry trade collapses. If the central bank raises interest rates, the government could be on the hook for massive payouts to banks, triggering a cascade of financial turmoil reminiscent of the 2008 crisis.
The ramifications are profound: higher interest payments on bank reserves, plummeting government bond values, and a destabilization of financial markets could plunge Japan into an economic abyss.
To prevent disaster, the government must tread carefully, engaging in desperate measures such as currency interventions to prop up the yen. But these efforts may only delay the inevitable, as the macroeconomic gods awaken from their slumber and threaten to unleash chaos on a global scale.
Even Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is on edge, urging caution and consultation before the Bank of Japan intervenes to support the yen. It’s a stark reminder of the fragility of Japan’s financial system and the potentially catastrophic consequences of its risky currency and monetary strategy.
Sources:
the japanese government itself is doing a $20T carry trade.
George Saravelos, the head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, examined a combined balance sheet of the Japanese government, encompassing the government-managed pension fund GPIF, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and… pic.twitter.com/k2feZbjd2x
— Peruvian Bull (@peruvian_bull) May 5, 2024
justdario.com/2024/03/why-a-historical-jpy-currency-crisis-is-at-the-doorstep-of-japan/
JUST IN 🚨: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says the Bank of Japan should consult with her before intervening to support Japanese Yen 😂 pic.twitter.com/rNVD0mNAkq
— Barchart (@Barchart) May 5, 2024
Lots of talk about USD weakness in coming months .
DXY is heading imo above 150 longer term .
DXY already warning significant underlying issues outside the U.S
Diamond reversal break out .
Backtest break then resumption . pic.twitter.com/YCSi6pb1Nk
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 5, 2024