What I expect in the next 24–48 hours:
- They will let 30–50 ships per day through (maybe up to 60 on some days).
(Current level is ~15 ships/day. Normal is 130–140.) - Most of those ships will be from “friendly” countries: China, India, Russia, Iraq, Malaysia, etc.
- They will still inspect, delay, or selectively approve tankers — basically running a slow-motion toll booth.
- Iranian officials will publicly say “We are honoring the ceasefire and allowing safe passage” while privately keeping the ability to shut it down again in hours if they want.
This is classic Iranian playbook. They hate giving up leverage completely.
Why they will do this:
- It buys them time to repair damaged infrastructure.
- It lets oil prices fall and markets calm down (which reduces immediate pressure on them).
- It gives Trump a “win” on paper so he doesn’t immediately restart heavy bombing.
- At the same time, they keep the threat alive so they can restart pressure later when it suits them.