Michael Snyder argues any remaining hope for a deal has collapsed and the crisis is shifting from negotiation into open-ended conflict risk
Iran-aligned reporting says negotiators will stop U.S. mediated messaging and move toward closing the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for regional strikes
Threats also extend to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising risk across two major global oil chokepoints
U.S. crude spiked as much as 8.5% to nearly $95 per barrel as breakdown headlines hit markets
Brent jumped above $97, with heating oil up ~7% and gasoline up ~4%
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the market’s “shock absorbers” are being steadily drained, reducing capacity to absorb disruption
He warns price pressure will transmit more directly into physical markets through June and July
Exxon SVP Neil Chapman says extreme inventory stress could push oil toward $150–$160 per barrel in stressed scenarios
Some projections already extend upside risk toward $180 per barrel if supply disruption intensifies
Global inventories are already falling at unusually fast rates, tightening the buffer ahead of any new shock
Fertilizer supply chains are also under pressure from chokepoint risk, raising downstream food cost exposure
A large share of U.S. farmers report affordability issues with fertilizer during peak planting season
Energy shock is now feeding directly into inflation pressure
Inflation pressure is feeding into broader system stress