Heavy put demand does not automatically signal a market bottom

Michael Bento
@MichaelPBento
We could not close above the 100DMA today which runs the risk of yesterday being a false all clear. This is exactly the type of price action it did 2/2525 – 03/03/2025 before decisively breaking it. The decisive break was on a Monday, would be really interesting if the same thing happened again.
The VIX is +11.73%, this makes 3 days in a row now of a +/- 10% move on the VIX, this is not what you see just before an all clear. It is however what we saw right before those huge spikes last October and November, and the fact that we are basing near where those spikes ended means we probably are in for a spike closer to where liberation day ended up. It would be really funny if tomorrow we had a -10% or more day for the VIX. That would be in my opinion the time to get max long into puts on SPY.

https://twitter.com/MichaelPBento/status/2029666405537247348

Trump hints U.S. will turn to Cuba after Iran: ‘Just a question of time’

President Donald Trump on Thursday suggested his administration will turn its sights to Cuba after U.S. military operations in Iran are finished.

“What’s happening with Cuba is amazing,” Trump said at the White House while participating in a visit of Inter Miami CF, the 2025 Major League Soccer champions.

“We think that we want to fix — finish this one first, but that will be just a question of time before you and a lot of unbelievable people are going to be going back to Cuba, hopefully not to stay,” Trump said.

The comments show Trump, less than a week into an escalating military conflict in the Middle East, is considering another major foreign policy move.