Gold now leads stocks over 25 years. Platinum up 50%, Copper 35%, Mag7 down since Dec 2024. The rotation is real.

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Gold has taken the lead. Over the past 25 years, it has outperformed the U.S. stock market even when dividends are included. That’s not a short-term anomaly. It’s a long-term shift in how value is preserved. Since 1999, gold has surged 866.67%. The S&P 500, by comparison, has climbed 388.67%. That’s a full doubling of returns in favor of the metal. And the longer the horizon, the wider the gap.

Since December 2024, the commodity rally has been broad. Platinum is up 50%. Copper gained 35%. Silver and palladium each rose 33%. Steel and gold are tied at 30%. Gasoline added 16%. Bitcoin moved 8%. Uranium ticked up 4%. The Mag7 ETF, which tracks the largest tech stocks, is down 3%. The rotation is visible. Commodities are rising while equities stall.

Gold hit $3,500 an ounce in April. Goldman Sachs projects $3,700 by year-end and $4,000 by mid-2026. Central banks are buying in bulk. Retail investors are still underweight. Gold-backed ETFs represent less than 2% of all ETF assets. Mining stocks are even lower. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is up 50% year to date. Newmont, the largest gold miner, is the top-performing S&P 500 stock in 2025.





The dollar is weakening. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index is down 8% this year. Foreign central banks sold $90 billion in U.S. debt between November and February. That’s not a vote of confidence. Gold is absorbing the pressure. It’s not just a hedge. It’s a response.

Stocks have been dragged down by three major crashes in the past 25 years. Dot-com. Housing. COVID. Gold held its ground. In real terms, U.S. stocks have returned just 20% over the past century. Gold has preserved purchasing power. That’s not theory. That’s math.

Sources

https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/commodities/superabundance-deflation-and-ominous-paths-in-gold-commodities/

https://www.investing.com/analysis/why-gold-stocks-are-outperformingand-still-look-undervalued-200659760

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-has-outperformed-the-sp-500-in-the-21st-century-202401091710

https://www.sbcgold.com/blog/gold-outshines-stocks-in-the-21st-century/

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