Concerns arise over Federal Reserve’s handling of unemployment, with predictions of further damage to the labor market. Recent data signals a cooling labor market, evidenced by rising unemployment rates and increased part-time employment. Speculation mounts for additional Fed rate cuts as recession indicators intensify.
Call Milli Vanilli because this shi* is getting real
Now Fed will hold too long causing the largest damage to the labor market. #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/6XionJGabm
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) May 3, 2024
The Fed has no control over the ending unemployment target outside of having the BLS torch the data
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) May 3, 2024
The U-3 unemployment rate jumped to 3.9% in April, and the U-6 unemployment jumped to 7.4%
Our data reinforced the cooling of the labor market seen in April and there are very large risks ahead pointing towards more rapid deterioration. #MacroEdge
— MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) May 3, 2024
More and more Americans are working part time…because they cant find a full time job
More Fed cuts ahead (than priced) looks likely pic.twitter.com/GGCe0WJZaO
— Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) May 3, 2024
Services ISM employment index just out – blended with Manufacturing ISM it has a different message from NFP & ADP data. Doesn’t look so rosy! pic.twitter.com/bCaaE9IgdN
— Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) May 3, 2024
September rate cut probabilities jumped up to 77%.
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 3, 2024
US permanent job losers continued to trend up last month…. (i.e. those who are not on temporary layoff).
Usually what happens before recession. pic.twitter.com/FjnlGNRIJX
— Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) May 3, 2024
Depressed weekly hours in the Apr jobs report is a sign of how many Americans have picked up part-time jobs, which have fewer hours, and are dragging down the average hours worked per payroll: pic.twitter.com/czlnHw1xkB
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) May 3, 2024
So a bull steepening bullish for risk assets?
Check again the historical data 😉
— The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) May 3, 2024
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