Energy Crunch: Demand for Diesel and Jet Fuel Soars But Refining Capacity Sinks

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via Mike Shedlock:

Refineries are closing due to environmental pressure. However, the public does not want EVs and the demand for diesel and jet fuel is on the rise.

Refining Bottleneck

Bloomberg reports A Crunch in Key Corner of Oil Market Leaves Consumers Vulnerable to Heat and War.

Oil demand growth has outpaced the increase in refinery capacity since 2021, and this will continue through 2027, according to industry consultant FGE. After 2028, there are no confirmed new refinery projects, it said, though there will likely be projects undertaken in Asia and the Middle East.

“The refining system is structurally tight,” said Nikhil Bhandari, Goldman Sachs Group Inc’s co-head of APAC natural resources and clean energy research. “That’s because of the backdrop where we’ve had 4% to 5% of global refining capacity closing in the last five years.” Global refinery processing rates this year are near record highs, according to the bank’s data going back to 2006.

Plants there are already running at about 88% utilization, leaving little room for more, according to Parsley Ong, head of Asian energy and chemicals at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “Refineries are already running at the highest utilization rates in recent history.”

Politicians Doing Their Job?

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Here’s the hoot of the day: “Politicians are doing their job to meet people’s demands,” said Steve Sawyer, director of refining at FGE.

Sawyer is half right, adding “But peak demand for oil may take longer than what these politicians would like.”

US Diesel Futures

Diesel futures chart courtesy of Barchart.Com

Politicians “Doing Their Job

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Other than that, politicians are doing a damn fine job somewhere, if only I could find where. Oh wait, I remember.

You have to admit that looting in San Francisco is far more efficient than at any time in history. And no one gets physically hurt as long as they stand back or cooperate with the looters.

The interesting thing is trucking is in the gutter and we still have upward pressure on diesel.

Not to worry, a prolonged UAW strike might help that. So would a strong recession.


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