End-of-Month Multiday Severe-Weather Outbreak: TX to PA

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Meteorologists are closely monitoring a developing weather system that shows significant potential for a widespread and robust severe weather outbreak across the Southern Plains and the Midwestern United States. According to the latest data from the Global Forecast System (GFS), a surface low is expected to develop in Kansas around February 27, reaching a minimum pressure of 986mb. Subsequently, the system is forecasted to intensify further as it moves northeast, reaching Ontario with a minimum pressure of 972mb by early February 29.

While the forecast is approximately 10 days out, there is a growing consensus and confidence in the severe weather potential. Both the GFS Deterministic and Ensemble outputs are exhibiting consistency, suggesting a classic setup for intense storms across the Midwest and South. It’s crucial to note that while the signals are strong, the forecast remains subject to change, and meteorologists will continue to closely monitor and provide updates as the situation evolves.

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The forecasted scenario involves a ski jump trough ejection, where a powerful system drops south from the Pacific Northwest, launching a secondary trough. This complex weather pattern, if it unfolds as predicted, could lead to a significant severe weather event. As the system develops, meteorologists will track its progression and assess the potential impacts on the affected regions.


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