Economy weakened before tariffs. Morgan Stanley sees no Fed cuts in 2025

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ISM services index slips to 50.8% from 53.5%

The service side of the U.S. economy, known as its engine, grew in March at its slowest pace in nine months, reflecting government spending cuts and uncertainty among businesses spawned by U.S. tariffs.

The services index compiled by the Institute for Supply Management dropped to 50.8% in March from 53.5% in the prior month.

Any number above 50% signals expansion, but the March reading was the lowest since a negative one in June.

The latest survey doesn’t capture the impact of the newly announced Trump administration tariffs on the rest of the world. Economists warn trade wars could raise prices, slow hiring and depress the economy if they persist for lengthy periods.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-economy-slowed-in-march-even-before-liberation-day-tariffs-ism-finds-d67b501e?mod=bulletin_ribbon