December rally or rout!

by

Breakdown of the Black Friday data tells us:

-Consumer is weakening.

-95% of sales volume was financed.

-67% of that intends not to pay off within 30 days.

-Roughly $1B was spent using BNPL models which are the worst debt.

This points to a *really* unhealthy economy.

Bear Stearns collapsed on March 10, 2008.
Interesting timing…

#Silver was exploding upward, stress was building in the shadows, and suddenly one of Wall Street’s biggest players went under.

They blamed “subprime.”
But anyone who has studied the positioning in that period knows what else was happening beneath the surface.
Some collapses don’t start in real estate, they start when the market breaks those who thought they could control price.

Coincidence? You decide.

Everyone is hyped for Jerome Powell tonight but they’re hyped for the wrong reasons.

Every time the word “rate cuts” enters the conversation, the whole feed flips bullish. But anyone who’s actually studied market history knows the truth. The Fed does not cut rates when things are strong. They cut when something is breaking. Cuts are not a bullish signal. They’re a distress signal.

If Powell hints at easing tonight or slowing QT, shifting tone, preparing for cuts. That isn’t “good news.” It’s confirmation that liquidity is deteriorating, credit conditions are tightening, delinquencies are rising and the system is getting heavier to hold up. That is the exact setup that preceded every major selloff in 2000, 2008 and 2020. The pivot didn’t spark a rally. It marked the beginning of the unwind.

And this is where most traders get trapped. They trade headlines instead of signals. They hear “cuts” they think “melt up” and they ignore the higher timeframe signals that have been red for weeks allowing us to catch these major swings. My weekly, monthly signal lines and SuperTrend haven’t budged. They’re still bearish across $SPY, $TSLA, $NVDA and #Bitcoin and those signals told the story long before Powell ever stepped up to a microphone.

So let the crowd celebrate the idea of easing. Let them buy the fantasy. I’ll stick with the math. If Powell is preparing to ease, it’s because the economy is weakening and weakening economies do not spark bull markets. They spark volatility, unwinds and fast repricing.

Tonight isn’t about Powell. It’s about the truth the signals already revealed.

The real move hasn’t even started yet.

Uh-oh! It looks like you're using an ad blocker.

Our website relies on ads and the generous support of readers like you to keep delivering free, high-quality content. Right now, we are facing serious funding challenges and we need your help more than ever. Disable your ad blocker and this message will vanish. You can also sign up for a membership to enjoy an ad-free experience while supporting our work: https://citizenwatchreport.com/plans/subscriptions/ Your support helps us stay independent, continue our work, and keep content free for everyone. We truly appreciate your understanding and thank you for standing with us.