The sustained 18-month decline in the Conference Board Leading Indicator is a worrying trend reminiscent of historical economic crises, particularly in 1973-74 and during the Global Financial Crisis. The current -7.8% decrease aligns with significant economic downturns over the past six decades, indicating a potential hard landing. This, coupled with a high and rising loan and bond default rate, challenges the narrative of a resilient economy.
Yet another reliable indicator of a potential hard landing ahead:
The Conference Board Leading indicator has been declining for 18 consecutive months.
The only similar instances of a sustained negative trend occurred during the stagflationary crisis of 1973-74 and the Global… pic.twitter.com/6ePr1qsqWU
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) November 17, 2023
DEFAULT ⚠️ WARNING pic.twitter.com/ArRiRJUxhm
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) November 17, 2023
Two mainstream media publications
Less than 24 hours apart
Is it any wonder we’re all flummoxed about the current state of the economy? pic.twitter.com/NJOIKwosu6
— Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) November 17, 2023
NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg craps all over the "resilient economy" narrative in his summary of the Oct small business survey
Read his concluding remarks here, esp the last paragraph
(h/t @nickgerli1 ) pic.twitter.com/Q4ZYnRJ1Mu
— Adam Taggart (@menlobear) November 17, 2023