by Chris Black
America is suffering from multiculturalism, division, and a sprawling empire.
China has a demographic time bomb.
Neither will flex on the other because each is waiting out the collapse of the other.
Russia’s future looks rosier than either of them.
Slightly better demographic picture, and the authoritarianism required to manage empire.
They will go down last and eat the Americans’ and Chinese’s lunch.
Imagine telling Fukuyama this in 1992.
https://apnews.com/article/biden-apec-summit-xi-san-francisco-3da195342650591f6bb436c864e19328
Not only this , but Russia is insulated from EROI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_return_on_investment) (energy return on investment) meltdown (https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Catabolic_Collapse) and readily accessible key minerals (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shortage-raw-materials-challenges-copper-135300545.html) in abundance.
Russia only started fracking deep into the US’s own shale boom (https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-shell-fracking-idAFL6N0KN2GV20140113), who’s higher quality and easier to access deposits of conventional crude had peaked in annual production in the early 70s (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/crude-oil-production).
This is important especially as Diesel yield is less among lighter sweet crude (https://cnbc.com/2018/04/17/shale-oil-has-a-refining-problem-and-morgan-stanley-smells-opportunity.html) and shale (crude with an API gravity above 40).
Russia has been diligently switching (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/sabetta-yamal-largest-gas-field) as many industries as possible to rely on their abundant natural gas (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves) (so abundant in the region in fact, that in nearby former SSR state Turkmenistan has a hole in the ground that has been burning for 50 years (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/the-quest-to-extinguish-the-flames-of-turkmenistans-terrifying-gates-of-hell-firepit-180979458/)).
In the event of an EROI meltdown and a Tainter-eque catabolic collapse (https://risk.princeton.edu/img/Historical_Collapse_Resources/Tainter_The_Collapse_of_Complex_Societies_ch_1_2_5_6.pdf), Russia will be the last geopolitical power standing.