Hey all – am working to compile a list of all current structural economic problems that we’re tracking along with the corresponding data/facts to back those points
Extended yield curve inversion which predates most (if not all) recessions in the US
Unemployment has small rises in the past couple of reports – trend wise this isn’t possible without a recession
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
Real wages not ticking up in the last couple years – we’re talking 1-2% vs inflation of 5% and rent/home price increases
wage: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
cpi: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
rent: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA
home price: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
Regional bank failures caused by commercial loans due to lack of return to office – a lot of these loans are at more favorable rates, and the leases are generally 5-15 years
We’ll see how that subsection of the economy plays out as the Fed tries to encourage return to office (really everywhere except NYC seems to be struggling with decreased return to office) – fortune.com/2024/06/29/return-to-office-san-francisco-doom-loop-fed-president-mary-daly/