Citi sets gold target at $5,000, silver to keep outperforming. In 8 days, the Supreme Court hears the first case in 112 years testing whether a President can fire Fed governors.

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Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation.

The DOJ served grand jury subpoenas on the Federal Reserve three days ago.

In 8 days, the Supreme Court hears the first case in 112 years testing whether a President can fire Fed governors.

$4 trillion in duration positions are pricing rate cuts.

They are not pricing the 30% probability that the institution setting those rates loses its legal independence.

MOVE index: 65.82 Four-year low.

Historical base rate when central bank independence erodes: 71% resulted in significant inflation.

Turkey went from 10% to 85% in 18 months once the constraints failed.

Powell’s chair term expires 15th May 2026.

The credibility premium is the most asymmetric mispricing of 2026.

Full institutional analysis: https://open.substack.com/pub/shanakaanslemperera/p/the-credibility-premium?r=6p7b5o&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true