by Chris Black
You are never an ex CIA guy (or gal):
It’s shocking that the Ukraine people are willing to continue dying in these numbers, and it’s shocking that there is not some kind of revolt.
It seems like if they were going to do it, they would have done it already.
It’s sort of obvious at this point that the only way the Ukraine is going to be able to stay together as a rump state when this war is over is under military rule.
Military governments tend to be practical, rather than ideological. They are less reliant on narratives.
It’s unclear what kind of narrative Zelensky could even have after surrendering in this war.
It feels like something is going to have to happen.
The lines have not changed at all since June, while the Ukraine has lost tens of thousands of troops and who knows how many billions in equipment.
At some point, the Ukraine military is going to be depleted enough that Russia is going to be able to make a serious push, either on Odessa or Kharkov (probably the latter).