China’s Real Estate Collapse Sends Local Debt To Record $18.9 Trillion

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Almost 20 years ago, when the Lehman/AIG collapse and the ensuing global financial crisis sent the world into a brief but acute depression, it was China’s massive debt-fueled growth dynamo that kick started the world economy and lifted the globe out of what would have been a lost decade – if not worse. The one trade off to this historic kickstart: China ended up doubling its total debt, which then continued growing at an exponential rate until the covid collapse sent China’s property sector – the biggest asset of its massive middle class – into a tailspin, and sparked a historic economic crisis. Only this time, because its total debt was already at 350% of GDP, Beijing no longer could wave a magic debt wand, inject a few trillions in credit, and make it all go away. Instead, the housing market has been in steady decline for the past 5 years and if anything, the decline has accelerated now that China’s Vanke – the last remaining state-backed property giant – is on the verge of collapse.

Unfortunately for China, which has done an admirable job of shoving all its economic woes under the rug while pretending it is growing at a immutable 5% year in and out, it’s about to get worse.

As Japan’s Nikkei reports, China’s local government debt continues to balloon as the prolonged, 5-year-long and counting, real estate slump has led to slumping income from property sales, pushing local government bond issuance for the year to a record high.

The total owed by local governments and the local government financing vehicles (LGFV) that fund their projects now sits at an estimated 134 trillion yuan ($18.9 trillion), which suggests that total public debt to GDP is far above 200%… and rising (by comparison in the US it is 100%… and rising). Add another 200% in private sector debt, and you can see why China debt problem is even bigger than that of Japan. It’s also what, according to Rabobank’s Michael Every, underlines China’s structural necessity to maintain capital controls and a vast, neo-mercantilist trade surplus (i.e., China will continue dumping goods and exporting deflation as the alternative means game over).

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-real-estate-collapse-sends-local-debt-record-189-trillion