From January 1, China’s new export-licensing regime will take effect, which would place state oversight over roughly 121 million ounces of silver shipped abroad each year. As a result, an estimated 60%–70% of the world’s refined silver traded across borders will now need explicit approval from Beijing before it can be exported.
China will tighten control over the global silver trade from January 1, 2026, with the rollout of a new export licensing regime that is expected to sharply curb overseas shipments of the metal. Under the new framework, silver exporters must secure government licences, which will be issued mainly to a small pool of large, state-approved firms. The move is likely to significantly restrict the outbound supply at a time when the global silver market is already stretched.
The policy shift comes amid an extraordinary rally in silver prices. The white metal has surged about 150% this year, rising from around Rs 90,500 per kilogram at the start of 2025 to more than Rs 2.32 lakh per kilogram by year-end. Silver has comfortably outperformed gold and is on track for its strongest annual performance on record.
The rally has been fuelled by a combination of macroeconomic and market factors. Interest rate cuts and expectations of further easing by the US Federal Reserve, persistent geopolitical tensions, strong central bank buying, and rising inflows into exchange-traded funds have all supported precious metals. Shifting expectations around global monetary policy have provided an additional tailwind throughout the year.