China’s baby bust accelerates, prompting concerns of a demographic crisis, as the population is expected to plummet to 525 million by the end of the century, a drastic revision from the earlier forecast of 597 million. The U.S. grapples with a similar trend, with birth rates falling by 14% to 20% since 2012, leading to fears of long-term economic and social consequences.
In China, the rapid decline in births is outpacing previous predictions, raising alarms about potential social and economic challenges. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the birth rate decline is fueled by a complex interplay of factors, including economic strains, soaring childcare costs surpassing housing expenses, and a negative trend in real incomes adjusted for inflation.
Amid rising healthcare and food costs, an increasing number of women aged 25-44 opt not to have children, nearly doubling the rate seen in 1976. The confluence of economic pressures, unaffordable living conditions, and negative real incomes poses a significant barrier to family planning, reflecting a broader global trend of declining birth rates with potential far-reaching implications.
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China's baby bust is happening faster than many expected, raising fears of a demographic collapse, per WSJ.
China will have just 525 million people by the end of the century. That's down from their previous forecast of 597 million and a precipitous drop from 1.4 billion now.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 14, 2024
The US birth rate has fallen by somewhere between 14% and 20% since 2012, depending on the estimate per Bloomberg.
Today, about 35% of women ages 25-44 have never given birth, almost double the number in 1976.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 14, 2024