Energy stocks are 5% below highs, indicating oil’s potential return of 48%, impacting Fed policy and financial markets. Rate hikes probability decreases, but odds of rate cuts drop, with no cuts until May 2024.

Energy stocks are only 5% away from recent highs. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe oil won't follow the same path. That alone would imply a 48% return from its current levels. As a crucial contributor to …

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Cumulative inflation since 1950

by InternationalTop2405 Cumulative rate of inflation per decade: 1930-1940: -16.2% 1940-1950: 72.1% 1950-1960: 22.8% 1960-1970: 31.1% 1970-1980: 112.4% 1980-1990: 58.6% 1990-2000: 31.8% 2000-2010: 26.6% 2010-2020: 18.7% 2020-2023: 40.2%

NATO to the rescue now?

Russian Defense Minister: NATO assembling 360,000 troops in Eastern Europe. Poland is preparing to occupy Western Ukraine.., Russian Defense Minister: NATO assembled 360,000 troops in Eastern Europe. Poland is preparing to occupy Western Ukraine. Important: If NATO moves from a …

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Recent intra-day reversals are due to institutional dumping of tech stocks, selling to retails. The weak 30 year treasury auction + Fed’s BTFP emergency lending window at a new all time high = We are in the final countdown.

These massive intra-day reversals we've been seeing lately are a result of institutions dumping Tech stocks en masse. A process known as "distribution" i.e. selling to retail late money. Here we see (Chaikin) money flow has collapsed. Note the difference …

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Round 2 of inflation is on the way!

Off the Recent Lows Orange Juice +45%Natural Gas +43%Sugar +41%Gasoline +33%Uranium +28%Oil +24%Lean Hogs +22%Soybeans +16%Iron Ore +15%Coal +14%Wheat +14% *Bloomberg terminal data, lows since Dec. **ALERT: Inflation expectations, US 5yr BEs, at a nine-year high. — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) …

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