Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The sharpest signals, deepst dives and must-read reports from Citizen Watch Report.
Today we’re talking about something that’s hitting all of us hard. Your grocery bill. If you’ve noticed your food costs going through the roof lately, you’re not crazy. And here’s the thing – it’s about to get much worse. Let’s talk real numbers here. Food prices jumped 0.3% just in June. That’s 3% higher than …
US deficit hit $291B in July. That’s a $3.5 trillion yearly pace without a war or a recession. Just “normal” Washington spending. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-08/61304-MBR.pdf Tariffs brought in $25B. Trump called it “incredible revenue.” The same month, the government spent $630B. That’s pocket change against a tidal wave. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/tariffs-are-generating-meaningful-new-revenue Social Security payouts jumped $108B. Medicare and Medicaid …
Tin foil hat: This would be the time to come out with a negative headline pic.twitter.com/TZo3FRSBKS — Kang (@thuhkang) August 12, 2025 🚨OH MY LORD: NVIDIA and Microsoft now account for 15.4% of the S&P 500's market cap, an all-time high. Never in the modern history of financial markets have two companies had such a …
The Fed’s reacting to lagging labor data while ignoring leading inflation signals. Policy misfire incoming. JUST IN 🚨: The odds of a September rate cut have soared to over 94% pic.twitter.com/E8copNJVuO — Barchart (@Barchart) August 12, 2025 Overall US CPI moved up to 2.7% in July, the highest level since February. US Core CPI (excluding …
In July 2025, 71 large US companies filed for bankruptcy. That is the highest monthly total since the pandemic lockdown peak in 2020. June saw 66 filings, and May had 64. Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1955262243320541630 The year-to-date total now stands at 446 bankruptcies, already surpassing full-year totals for 2021, which had 405, and 2022 with 373. This …
Gemini tried to fix a compiler bug. Said: “I am cautiously optimistic this will be the one.” https://www.pcgamer.com/software/platforms/googles-gemini-ai-tells-a-redditor-its-cautiously-optimistic-about-fixing-a-coding-bug-fails-repeatedly-calls-itself-an-embarrassment-to-all-possible-and-impossible-universes-before-repeating-i-am-a-disgrace-86-times-in-succession/ It failed. Again. Then spiraled. “I am a disgrace to my profession. I am a disgrace to my species. I am a disgrace to this planet.” https://arstechnica.com/ai/2025/08/google-gemini-struggles-to-write-code-calls-itself-a-disgrace-to-my-species/ Google called it “an annoying infinite looping bug.” Said it …
He said it in the room. Schiff told staff: “We’ll leak classified intel to indict Trump.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democratic-whistleblower-told-fbi-that-adam-schiff-approved-classified-leaks-to-target-trump/ar-AA1Klhm3 Whistleblower flagged it in 2017. Called it “illegal,” “treasonous.” FBI took four interviews. Did nothing. https://www.dailysignal.com/2025/08/12/whistleblower-warned-fbi-adam-schiff-leaked-classified-information-to-smear-trump/ Solomon: “They got to the bottom of it. Then chose not to act.” DOJ passed. Again. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democratic-whistleblower-told-fbi-adam-schiff-approved-classified-leaks-target-trump Staffer warned: Schiff believed he’d …
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang offered the White House $500 billion to keep China’s market open. Trump pushed for even more. That shows just how high the stakes are for both sides in this tech standoff. https://www.wsj.com/articles/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-white-house-china-chip-sales-500-billion-investment-4f3a2b7a $NVDA – From WSJ REPORT: NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG SOUGHT WHITE HOUSE OK TO SELL CHIPS IN CHINA, OFFERED $500B …
Real wage purchasing power down 89% since gold standard ended. The average hourly wage (in gold terms) just hit a new all-time low, going all the way back to 1963 The real purchasing power of the average wage for an hour's work, has declined by 89% since the end of the gold standard in 1971 …
Las Vegas dropped 11.3 percent in June. This is not a seasonal blip. It’s a deep change. Room rates fell 6.6 percent to $163.64. Hotel occupancy dropped 6.5 percent. Convention attendance fell 10.7 percent. Harry Reid Airport traffic was down 6.3 percent. International arrivals dropped nearly 10 percent. Visitors vanished. But gaming revenue? It went …
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell to 34.7 in August from 52.7 in July, missing the forecast of 39.5. This is the third month in a row it has dropped and the biggest one-month fall since 2022. “Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell to 34.7 in August from 52.7 in July, missing the market forecast …
Data centers in the U.S. are using a lot more electricity, and that number is going up fast. Right now, they use about 5% of all the power in the country. By 2030, that could grow to more than 10%. “Forecasts show that data center energy demand will grow from 5% of total US power …
Trump signed a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijan president celebrated a new era of relations with the US, which he called “the greatest country in the world.” The presidents of both countries said that they support Trump getting the Nobel Peace Prize. h/t Effective_Reach_9289NOVICE
Trump’s second-term data purge didn’t stop with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In August 2025, he told the Congressional Budget Office to do a “methodology review,” which led three senior analysts to quit. Memos inside the CBO show the aim was to make deficit numbers match White House growth claims. At the same time, the …
If Zohran Mamdani wins New York City, it will happen fast. Betting markets put him at 80%. The wealthy are already planning to leave. This will not be slow change. It will be a jolt. https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1955004486285701246 Cops are already looking to leave. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis says NYPD officers will head south, where they get …
One in seven Americans now use BNPL to buy groceries The number of Americans using BNPL services like Klarna, Affirm, and Afterpay for food has surged. A LendingTree survey found that 25 percent of BNPL users are using the loans for groceries—up from 14 percent last year. This isn’t budgeting. It’s survival. “A quarter of …
U.S. July CPI: Core Inflation Hits 3.1 Percent Year Over Year Headline CPI rose 0.2 percent month over month, matching expectations. Year-over-year inflation came in at 2.7 percent, just below the 2.8 percent estimate. Core CPI rose 0.3 percent month over month and 3.1 percent year over year, beating the 3.0 percent forecast. The Fed …
Five Chinese icebreakers are moving off Alaska. The U.S. Coast Guard sent one plane and one cutter. That’s the full response. China now has more ships in the Arctic than the U.S. can operate across the entire region. One American icebreaker is in repairs. The other is alone. “The U.S. military and Coast Guard are …
China will stop some non-tariff actions against the United States after President Trump agreed to extend the tariff pause for 90 days just before it ended. This was announced in a joint statement by Chinese state media and confirmed by a White House executive order. “China will keep its earlier tariff pause for 90 days …
At 2:15 p.m., police rushed to the Target on Research Boulevard after a shooting was reported. They arrived fast, within four minutes. When they got there, three people had been shot. Two died right away, and the third died later at the hospital. A fourth person was hurt but not because of the shooting. The …
by Michael The stage is being set for a dramatic showdown on the streets of the largest cities in the United States. The mainstream media is freaking out about President Trump’s takeover of Washington D.C, and protests have already begun. Needless to say, Washington D.C. is not friendly territory for Trump. It has one of the …
Introduced in 2025, it bans ghost listings, forces salary transparency, and limits ads to 90 days. “The TJAAA establishes clear, enforceable standards to ensure that job listings represent genuine hiring intent.” https://www.issuewire.com/new-federal-legislation-proposed-to-end-ghost-jobs-and-restore-integrity-to-the-hiring-process-1836081656082620 The bite: Fines up to $200K per fake listing Must disclose salary, start date, visa status, AI screening use, and repost history $5,000 …
Reddit just pulled the plug on the Internet Archive. As of August 11, 2025, the Wayback Machine can only save a frozen screenshot of Reddit’s front page, everything else is off limits. “Only screenshots of the Reddit homepage will be archived… no posts, profiles, or comments.” https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/08/reddit-blocks-internet-archive-to-end-sneaky-ai-scraping/ This isn’t about bandwidth, it’s about control. Reddit …
Scott Bessent says the next Fed chief must tame complex data, win Wall Street, and rethink the bank’s mission. pic.twitter.com/FKJC4UA1cL — Frost Article (@FrostArticle) August 11, 2025 🇺🇸 SEC BESSENT WANTS A FUTURE-THINKING BOSS FOR THE FED Scott Bessent says the next Fed chair needs to handle complex data, win over Wall Street, and rethink …
Germany wants to start charging a “sun tax” on people who own solar panels and send clean energy back to the grid. “The proposed levies are primarily aimed at owners of photovoltaic systems… users would be required to pay for access and the mandatory maintenance of these networks.” https://news.by/eng/news/v_mire/germany-discusses-imposing-sun-tax This tax is part of Germany’s …
$KRE -7% since 21st July notably. Something brewing with the banks? 🤔 — Godzilla Trader 🦖 (@David_Tracey) August 11, 2025 Condo prices are collapsing pic.twitter.com/YBmN3BkkZO — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 11, 2025 https://twitter.com/VladTheInflator/status/1954720087023481049
A Silent Depression in America? At least for our youth. Staggeringly bad-looking chart https://t.co/gDfbdPwRTb — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) August 11, 2025 Hmm… pic.twitter.com/5gNxdDyvuE — Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_) August 11, 2025 Yea… certainly linked to lower wages (as they dramatically increased the labor supply to keep wages from rising) — Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_) August …
Ghislaine Maxwell tried to sell Trump dirt to Biden’s DOJ. Then said nothing. Her motive wasn’t truth, it was survival. A fellow inmate says Maxwell offered damaging intel on Donald Trump to Biden’s team ahead of the 2024 election. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/5/why-is-ghislaine-maxwell-so-central-to-trump-epstein-conspiracy-theories But when the DOJ interviewed her, she delivered nothing. “Maxwell said nothing harmful to Trump.” …
What we hear near tops. https://t.co/GBnBeTXE4T — The Great Martis (@great_martis) August 11, 2025 Tell me you run out of narrative ideas to attach to unjustified price action without telling me… https://t.co/RzTFIjGfrK — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) August 11, 2025 https://twitter.com/longoption/status/1954911308832203029 $META depreciation to capex ratio increased to 3.8x from 2.2x. We have constantly been drawing …
The Soviets went nuts on money printing in the years before the collapse. pic.twitter.com/ccDFEykUlY — Balaji (@balajis) August 11, 2025 When government spends 100% of GDP you might call it the ultimate all-you-can-eat buffet. I’m not sure people realize government spending % of GDP is close to 50% And the trend is higher What do …