Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The sharpest signals, deepst dives and must-read reports from Citizen Watch Report.
Texas is not just dealing with debt, it is sinking in it, and the people in charge act like nothing is wrong. 1 in 3 Texans now has debt in collections. That is not just above the national average, it leaves it in the dust. Across the country, 1 in 5 Americans face collection notices. …
Poland closed its border with Belarus at midnight Thursday because it sees danger approaching, not for a routine security check. The Zapad-2025 exercises will start Friday in Belarus and western Russia, and Warsaw is moving first. Nuclear simulations, hypersonic missile tests, and troop movements are planned near the Suwałki Gap, the narrow strip of NATO …
Paris is burning with anger and debt. Macron’s government is collapsing under its own numbers, and the streets are alive with people who have stopped listening to excuses. The country owes €3.3 trillion. Interest alone takes 7 percent of the budget and grows every day. Every attempt to cut €44 billion failed. Lawmakers crushed the …
Economy is in LATE CYCLE. Recession is building, and the market is about to confront the limits of manipulation and policy. The fraud in the financial system is even more rampant today 😡 The whole thing is RIGGED much like 2008 in some ways. pic.twitter.com/xB1exGyhWa — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 9, 2025 https://x.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1965416983782195242 When gold …
Nobody in Nepal blinked when KP Sharma Oli finally resigned. What shocked people was how long it took. The country had already exploded. Streets were full of furious protesters, government buildings defaced, homes of top officials set on fire. A generation had stopped asking for reform and started demanding the collapse of a system that …
A bartender can go to jail for serving a drunk guy who drives and kills someone. But a judge lets a 14-time violent offender walk, and when he murders a young woman, nothing happens? It’s absurd, bartenders face harsher consequences for one mistake than judges do for letting dangerous criminals loose. Accountability for judges could …
Early Tuesday morning, two high-voltage pylons in the city’s southeast were set on fire. Over 50,000 households and countless businesses went dark. This was not an accident. The flames were deliberate, fueled to hit the city’s energy backbone and timed to cause maximum chaos. Hours later, a letter appeared on Indymedia from self-proclaimed anarchists. They …
The latest tariff changes on small purchases, hit shipping like an iceberg, yet the Titanic Treasury market will be at risk if the Supreme Court Reverses Trump’s tariffs. by David Haggith A lot more news streamed in since my Deeper Dive on the labor market, affirming the major recessionary downturn I reported in my analysis. …
by Michael What in the world has happened to us? When I was growing up, it was assumed that pretty much everyone in my generation would be able to achieve the American Dream. But today most of the U.S. population is not living the American Dream, and more people are falling out of the middle class …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Electricity demand for AI data centers is soaring. The result won’t be pretty. Consumer electricity costs from BLS, Industrial costs from Statista, chart by Mish Chart Notes: Industrial prices for 1980-2010 only for years divisible by 5. The rest are extrapolated. I estimated the consumer cost for 2025 from …
Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years. Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 billion, to a record $1.66 trillion in Q2 2025. An auto debt crisis is brewing. …
Bitcoin's fate lies with the Nasdaq. Won't be long. pic.twitter.com/uZRMxlNhNE — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 9, 2025 Zooming out: over the past month the 10Y-2Y spread has bull-steepened +9 bps and the 10Y-3M +15 bps. In modern history, a sharp bull-steepening following a deep inversion has only occurred heading into recessions, making this one …
Renter late payments are skyrocketing! pic.twitter.com/Ew76aK1gTj — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) September 8, 2025 https://t.co/XLlmH86xiV — Melody Wright (@m3_melody) September 8, 2025 “Crashing wood prices are troubling because they have been a reliable leading indicator on the direction of the housing market as well as broader economic activity.” 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/MQP6bU8ejn — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) September …
by Jesse Colombo The U.S. dollar is experiencing a rare volatility squeeze, indicating that a major move is near. While the most likely direction is downward, any move will have a big impact on precious metals. Lately, I’ve been writing a number of updates that follow the theme of “asset X is on the verge …
The Supreme Court gave ICE the power to act freely in Los Angeles, and the implications are bigger than most people realize. Federal law now takes priority over local rules, meaning ICE can enforce immigration without being blocked. This changes the balance, showing that national enforcement cannot be ignored. “The Supreme Court has lifted restrictions …
Indonesia is falling apart. It did not happen overnight. Years of corruption, poverty, and heavy-handed government have pushed people to the edge. Lawmakers gave themselves huge housing allowances, ten to twenty times higher than the minimum wage, while millions of people struggle to survive in low-paying gig jobs. When 21-year-old delivery driver Affan Kurniawan was …
The open web is being dismantled by design. Google, once the steward of digital discovery, now admits in court filings that the open web is “already in rapid decline” https://google.com/2025/09/in-court-filing-google-concedes-the-open-web-is-in-rapid-decline . At the same time, the company accelerates this collapse by pushing AI-generated answers that strip publishers of traffic, revenue, and relevance. Hyperlinks vanish in …
“It reveals the letter exactly as it was described in a mid-July report from The Wall Street Journal, which first uncovered the existence of the “bawdy” message.” https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/08/trump-epstein-birthday-book-oversight.html Trump Administration Live Updates: Epstein Estate Turns Over Birthday Drawing Apparently Signed by Trump A key congressional committee on Monday obtained a note and sexually suggestive drawing …
It was not hackers, not satellites falling silent, and not a solar storm. It was older and simpler than that: a set of undersea cables cut in the Red Sea, the most volatile shipping lane in the world. For decades, experts warned that global internet infrastructure was fragile. When the cuts happened, the warnings became …
Everyday costs are exploding. Gas is up 94 percent. Electricity is up 78 percent. Fuel is up 49 percent. Hotels are up 38 percent. Rent and food are up 25 percent. Average earnings have fallen 2.8 percent. Citizens are being squeezed from all sides and the economic strain is driving a subtle exodus. This is …
OpenAI has reportedly lifted its projected cash burn to $115B through 2029, up $80B from earlier forecasts, per The Information. The AI firm expects to burn $8B this year, $17B in 2026, $35B in 2027, and $45B in 2028 as it scales data centers and chips. pic.twitter.com/dB4gGBz5Qf — Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) September 8, 2025 …
The warning signs were impossible to miss. They were dismissed, ignored, and buried beneath the language of actuarial tables and regulatory fog. In 2025, Americans are facing the largest health insurance premium spikes in fifteen years, with some plans climbing 18 percent https://www.forbes.com/advisor/d/aca-premiums-rising-short-term-insurance . This is not inflation. It is extraction. The timing is deliberate. …
The global food system is fraying at every seam. August 2025 did not deliver a seasonal blip or a temporary disruption. It revealed a continental-scale unraveling of protein supply, visible to anyone paying attention. Meat prices have surged another 10 percent this year, sending the FAO’s meat price index to an all-time high https://guyanachronicle.com/2025/09/06/fao-food-price-index-virtually-unchanged-in-august. The …
The new jobs numbers have been trending downwards for the last six months, or so. We are well into a recession at this point. Are we already in a jobs recession? Less than 50% of industries are adding workers the last 6 months. Numbers like this are only seen during recessions. pic.twitter.com/9J2H1FTyZr — QE Infinity …
Unemployment is climbing, inflation is creeping back, and the pressure is building exactly like it did a century ago. The Great Inversion is finally upon us. Get out while you still can. When the wealthiest top 0.00001% quietly unload their bags onto the 99.99% of retail sheep, it’s not a market, it’s a transfer. And …
The UK government has already crossed the line from discussion to execution. Digital ID checks and biometric kits are being sent into the field, and enforcement officers can now decide on the spot whether someone can work, stay, or move freely https://www.gov.uk/government/news/home-secretary-sets-out-new-action-to-tackle-illegal-working . These checks create a moving network of control where identity is no …
SP 500 returned 3% total from 2020-2025 when measured in gold. When measuring in dollars it returned 80%. Measuring in dollars is like measuring in Monopoly money Irony is gold is not a recession hedge (long bonds are). It is a system hedge. — Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) September 8, 2025 Silver is ripping and the …
Gold and silver are about to explode in value while the dollar slowly crumbles. The elites have been quietly hoarding metals, but soon the masses will realize fiat is collapsing and crypto is just a trap to keep money flowing into U.S. debt. Every other asset will fall as the global debt bubble finally bursts …
They can keep the whole thing afloat as long as they’d like The release valve is just the currency. Inflation is running at 3%-5% …and there's a 100% probability that the Fed cuts at least 25bps in ten days As if that wasn't bad enough, there's a 11% probability they do a jumbo 50bps cut …
Putin’s top adviser is saying the quiet part out loud. $35 trillion in U.S. debt is a ticking bomb and Washington plans to shove it into crypto before detonating it. Russia is slamming America’s stablecoin push. Special adviser to Putin, Anton Kobyakov, says it’s a scheme to shove $35T debt into crypto, devalue it, and …