CAROLINE LEAVITT: “THE IRANIAN 10-POINT PLAN WAS THROWN IN THE TRASH BY PRESIDENT TRUMP.”

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Pretty ugly headlines this morning following the ceasefire:

– Israel attacking Lebanon

– Trump says Lebanon wasn’t part of the deal

– Iran threatening to stop ship passage unless attacks on Lebanon stop

– Pakistani PM calling for both sides to honor the agreement

The lack of certainty, once again, has created choppiness within individual stocks, but…

Oil is still down 15%.

The S&P is still up 2.3%.

Vix is still down 18%.

Massive moves that could retrace but the buyers (whether algos, tutes, or retail) have come in. Maybe it’ll all be exit liquidity if the talks fail and we go back to fighting.

My personal opinion: I really, really think both sides want a deal. Trump was ALREADY posting this morning about sanctions relief for Iran (which is huge!!!!) and Iran knows how beneficial that would be to get them back into global trade.

However, Iran has new leverage given how they were able to hold up the Strait for a month and likely aren’t afraid to use it.

I think both sides want a deal. I think we get one. If we do, oil normalizes. Stocks don’t have to go to the moon but they probably don’t revisit the March 30th lows as easily.

Feels bullish conceptually, assuming the ceasefire holds and turns into a deal, but still selling calls here as a hedge.