Canada isn’t in a recession; it’s in a depression, facing high unemployment, stagnant wages, and housing crisis.

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The Canadian unemployment rate is currently the highest it has been since 2016. The last time unemployment was this high, the Bank of Canada (BOC) policy rate was 0.5%. Today, it stands at 3.75%. This stark contrast highlights the severity of the current economic situation. The BOC will likely have to cut rates significantly, which would inevitably weaken the Canadian dollar, or Loonie. However, even drastic interest rate cuts might not create the over one million jobs needed for the influx of people who have immigrated to Canada in recent years. Furthermore, such cuts would not resolve issues of stagnant productivity, wages, or the ongoing housing affordability crisis.

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Retail sales in Canada have also taken a hit, dropping 2.2% year-over-year, despite the population growing by 3.2% over the same period. This discrepancy suggests a deeper issue within the economy, as increased population typically drives higher retail sales. The sharp decline in retail activity points to underlying economic troubles that could signal more significant problems ahead.

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Sources: https://www.conferenceboard.ca/insights/unemployment-rate-rises-job-seekers-left-out-in-the-cold/https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-unemployment-november-1.7403156

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/albertas-unemployment-rate-rose-to-75-in-november-despite-strong-job-growth/ar-AA1vpx5P

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/07/2024-schedule-policy-interest-rate-announcements-major-publications/

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/ca/mortgages/bank-of-canada-key-interest-rate-announcement/