Let’s be honest: the only reason anybody feels optimistic is because of equity prices. The economy itself is deteriorating fairly quickly now.
— Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) December 3, 2024
Jim, the economy is not accelerating. Whatever numbers we’ve had for the last three years have been mostly lies.
— Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) December 3, 2024
- U.S. Existing Home Sales: Existing home sales fell by 2.0% in October 2024 compared to the previous month.
- U.S. Industrial Production: Industrial production decreased by 0.7% in October 2024.
- U.S. Retail Sales: Retail sales decreased by 0.8% in November 2024 compared to October.
- U.S. Leading Economic Index: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by 0.4% in October 2024 to 99.5 (2016=100), following a 0.3% decline in September.
As you can see, there is a disconnect like nothing we’ve ever seen in history between what manufacturers are saying is going on and how investors have rewarded their share prices. This is another indication that the stock market is in a bubble.
Let me give you an example of bias, even with an innocent reading of a banal economic chart.
The @SoberLook (Daily Shot) is an amazing website that for a very small subscription fee will give you daily global economic data without too much analysis. However, sometimes they do… pic.twitter.com/tKvfq8cwtY
— Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) December 3, 2024
10 year yield 📉 pic.twitter.com/EYo05nz1Jx
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) December 3, 2024
Microchip Technology Inc., a maker of chips for cars, consumer devices and other products, said it would close a plant in Tempe, Arizona, affecting about 500 employees#MacroEdge
— MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) December 3, 2024
‼️US JOB MARKET IS GETTING WORSE UNDER THE SURFACE‼️
The number of Americans unemployed for 15 weeks & over jumped to 2.8 million in October, the most since November 2021.
Over the past year, this unemployment has jumped by ~1 million.
Data for November is due Friday. pic.twitter.com/cxMVKt9CwT
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December 2, 2024
Sources:
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/
https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators