via WSB:
Despite all of the negative press, the projections for $BUD have stayed the same since before the controversy.
Its true that Anheuser-Busch makes other beers, and the average person boycotting Bud Light may not be aware of that. However, that does not negate the fact that Anheuser-Busch has to buy back its unused product from distributors, essentially taking a double loss. They are losing market share, and a select few news companies are taking the opportunity to use their example as political capital. I assume that as Pride Month begins to spin up, Anheuser-Busch will be the target of even more bad press.
Taking a look at calls and puts, it seems that calls are priced higher than puts of equivalent delta. Since puts should be about 20% more expensive than calls, I think the puts are undervalued. Either that or the calls are overvalued. IV is trending pretty close to the 52 week average, even if just a tiny bit above, so the options shouldn’t be too distorted due to their volatility. Even though the share price keeps dropping, the short float is only .67%, which means that overall the attitude is pretty bullish on this stock.
As a reta- I mean retail trader, I think the market is wrong. So, I took what was left of my portfolio after losing 30% in 3 days from going all in on $SPCE and Yolo’d it into $50 $BUD puts expiring 12/15. Please be gentle Theta Gang.
August 3rd is their Q2 earnings call, and they’re predicting a higher profit than was predicted for last quarter. Again, this prediction has not been changed because of the boycott. Exit strategy is to dump the puts after the earnings call (hopefully) announces that they missed the mark. Also the stock may continue to drop in the meantime. Expiration date is further out to minimize theta decay.
Keep in mind that I consistently lose money on the stock market, and only a complete idiot would take my advice. The chance that the market is wrong and I am right is about 100 to 1. Will post results August 4th.