The people running the biggest companies have stopped lying about a soft landing
Confidence among CEOs is the lowest it has been in years
Almost half of these leaders are getting ready to cut staff to save money
They stopped trying to grow and are now just trying to survive
Money for new projects is being pulled back to keep the bank accounts full
The real economy is moving much faster than the stock market wants you to see
Retail stores and factories are preparing for a hard fall
The engine that runs the economy is finally running out of gas
CEO Confidence Tumbled in Q2 2026
- 47% of CEOs say economic conditions are worse than six months ago.
- Only 15% say conditions are better.
- CEOs expect conditions to weaken further over the next six months.
For the first time, more CEOs plan to cut jobs than add them
This is one of the most significant developments hiding inside the CEO confidence survey.
The survey shows more CEOs expect workforce reductions than workforce expansion, a major shift from the hiring optimism seen earlier in the cycle.
Consumers are becoming more cautious
Recent consumer surveys show declining optimism and increasing plans to reduce discretionary spending.
The most important part is not current spending. It’s future intentions.
Consumers increasingly report plans to cut back on “nice to have” purchases.
Retailers are warning that lower-income consumers remain under pressure
Dollar General reported that many core shoppers remain financially strained due to higher fuel costs and reduced government assistance.
When discount retailers talk about customer stress, investors pay attention because they serve households most exposed to economic weakness.
Manufacturing is expanding, but employment is not
This is a subtle but important story from the last 48 hours.
The ISM manufacturing survey hit a four-year high, yet factory employment remains in contraction.
In other words:
- production activity improved
- hiring did not
That suggests companies are still cautious about adding workers even when business improves.
Major CEOs are warning that consumers could weaken in the second half of 2026
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said rising oil prices and inflation could alter consumer behavior later this year.
That’s not a recession call, but it is a warning that executives are watching for demand deterioration.